Nine 4 year old colts, one 4 year old filly, and one 7 year old horse will vie on Saturday for the lion’s share of the $500,000 purse in the Grade I Count Fleet, a 6 furlong sprint on the Upper New York dirt course, expected to be dry and fast. A fairly even betting field with a couple of premier early speed sprinters and a couple of hard closers will make this a battle of strategy as well as heart. The field by post position:
PP 1 – U Still Turn Me On (Victory Gallop x Mr. Prospector x Seattle Slew) <\/I><\/B>This 4 yr old, bred and trained by ohjoanie<\/I> (15%), is an accomplished allowance horse, but he hasn’t had much experience at stakes of any kind (just two ungraded stakes races, one of those was owner-restricted), and his speed figures don’t presage any huge run with this kind of company. He likes to run out to the lead, and from the rail, he’ll at least get to save ground, but I can’t see him doing much more than setting early hot fractions in this company. Might be in a bit over his head.<\/P>
PP 2 – In The Army Now (Polish Navy x Forest Wildcat x Pentelicus) <\/I><\/B>This super9<\/I> (19%) charge has more than a bit of Jeckyl and Hyde to him. Most of his career he’s shown to be a very solid, if not spectacular, allowance horse. This year he tackled the graded stakes ranks, and finished 13th and 10th in his first two tries. He then proceeded to rack up a gutty photo win in a Grade III. He’s shown the ability to run close to the speed numbers in this race when he runs his best race, but he’s also gone completely AWOL at times too. A decent chance for a check on his best day, but picking him to have his best day on a given Saturday is a bit trickier.<\/P>
PP 3 – Sulphur(IRE) (Giant’s Causeway(IRE) x Forty Niner x Lyphard) <\/I><\/B>The favorite (at 7\/2) comes from the mainline<\/I> (15%) barn, and this is a pretty solid-looking bit of chalk here. Coming in off of a Grade I win-by-a-nostril photo, at a very impressive 108 speed figure, plus boasting speed figs of 107 and 111 the previous two outings, the 6th-ranked older male sprinter might be ready for another come-from-behind score here on Saturday. However, even this good-looking favorite has questions: Will he come off form with a thud? Like In The Army above, Sulphur has been known toss the occasional clunker, as in a 10th in a Grade II 6 races back. Plus, as with all deep closers, he has to worry about traffic and trouble issues. But if this favorite can keep his head and run his race, Sulpher may well smoke em at the finish.<\/P>
PP 4 – Blazing Glory (More Than Ready x Silver Buck x Storm Cat) <\/I><\/B>Another stone closer with some impressive credentials, this waremblem2<\/I> (10%) charge doesn’t win as often as some of the competitors here, but he’s got some impressive speed figures under his belt, and has the running style to take advantage if there’s a hot pace in front of him. But he can also be erratic at times. His last time out was a fine 2nd in a Grade II, but the outing before that he passed tired horses but still couldn’t get closer than 7th in a Grade III. He’ll be flying at the end, and with his best race, stands a fine chance of cashing a check.<\/P>
PP 5 – Act Of Brave (Gone West x Danehill x Nureyev) <\/I><\/B>Bred and trained by pm<\/I> (17%) has gone close to a year without winning a sprint, but he has shown he can run with this class in the past. Lately though, he’s been struggling some, having three 91 speed figs in his last 4 races, 2 sprints, and 2 routes. Unless he runs back to what he ran in week 2664 (where he posted a 112 in winning a Grade I mile race), this regally-bred closer will have a tough time cashing a check in this company.<\/P>
PP 6 – Flying Wild (Wild Again x Alydar x Blushing Groom(FR)) <\/I><\/B>The senior citizen of this group (in fact, the only non-4 yr old in the field), this 7 year old is relatively lightly raced (this will be his 25 career start), and an intriging shot at 5\/1. Like U Still Turn Me On in gate 1, Polish Reality in 10 and Post Oak Bluff in 11, this ashford<\/I> (10%) trainee will probably be looking for the lead right away. This could have a couple of effects. If there is a push from all the front runners, the pace may be suicidal, leaving the toughest closer to run on by. Another possibility is the most talented of the front-runners (and at least on paper that appears to be Flying Wild or Polish Reality) may make the others spit the bit sooner rather than later and get a clear enough lead to hold off the late chargers. This guy has the class and the speed to do just that. Can’t overlook his chances for a wire win here.<\/P>
PP 7 – Geographical (Cape Town x Herat x Seattle Song) <\/I><\/B>Another of the closers in this group, this challenger out of the chorwon<\/I> (8%) barn, has been all over the board in his last 6 races, from wins at speeds of up to 107, to two Grade I disasters in his last 3, hitting just a 93 in each. He can run with Graded company, as witnessed by a close-up 4th in a Grade III 5 races back, but he’ll need to bounce back from those latest two Grade Is, the Tri-City Sprint (won by the PP 3 horse, Sulphur), and the Oh What Speed Stakes, where\u00a0 he ran in the slop. On his best day, he’d certainly be a factor here, but for my money he’d need to show he’s back to his best effort. Too inconsistent.<\/P>
PP 8 – Carnival Of Souls (Cape Town x Devil His Due x Vice Regent)<\/I><\/B> A half-brother to the horse next to him, this entry from the super3<\/I> (16%) stable, is a bit of a tough read. He’s got some nice versatile running style options, able to stalk reasonably close or come from farther off the pace, and he’s hit 105 speed figures a couple of times, notably as recently as 2 races back, and in 2 of his last 5. But there are questions: This will be his 2nd Graded company race, but the prior one was at a route, and was last year, to boot. He also seems to relish a longer sprint, being 2-2-1 in 5 lifetime races at 7.5 furlongs, and this will be his first try ever at this exact distance. In fact, he’s run 6 of his 9 races this year at a mile or more. Definitely talented, but there might be too many questions for this guy in this kind of\u00a0 company.<\/P>
PP 9 – Sure Ding (Greenwood Lake x Prince Tenderfoot x Transworld) <\/I><\/B>Breeder\/trainer dingo353<\/I> (12%) brings in the 2nd longest shot in the field, the modestly bred Sure Ding. This is another horse who’s picking a pretty tough spot to make his Graded stakes debut, and\u00a0 so far hasn’t shown a whole lot to recommend him besides a suitable running style, as he likes to close from deep. Were he the only closer, he’d be a better shot, if there is a suicidal pace. He’s lightly raced, making only his 12th career start, so improvement certainly isn’t out of the question, but for now, this guy looks a bit overmatched in this company.<\/P>
PP 10 – Polish Reality (Polish Navy x Gulch x Known Fact)<\/I><\/B> Last week I had the opportunity to cover the Grade I Remember Cupid Stakes<\/I> and covered another champions4<\/I> (20%) horse, a hugely talented up and comer named Hurricane Katrina. I remarked then about this barn being overflowing with talent like Anticosti, Rapid Grey (who’s competing in the Grade I Coalminer Cup on Saturday), and Polish Reality. As mentioned earlier, he is one of two very classy, very talented frontrunners here (along with Flying Wild), and much in this race will depend on two related things: How fast the early speed horses take the early fractions, and which, if any of them, will have enough to fight off the closers flying down the stretch. Polish Reality held off a stalwart effort from closer Blazing Glory last time out, but he didn’t have the same calibre of early speed that’s likely to go out with him, and he also didn’t have Sulphur running. Still, some serious speed that has to be given respect.<\/P>
PP 11 – Post Oak Bluff (Kingmambo x Sadler’s Wells x Sassafras(FR)) <\/I><\/B>Another ‘super’ horse, this one from the super2<\/I> (19%) stable, is the only filly in the race, and she’s a good one. Her only other lifetime go against the boys was last year, in another Grade I, and she acquitted herself very well there, leading for three quarters of the race before fading to 4th, beaten only 1 1\/4 lengths. This year however, she struggled at the outset, failing to run well in her first two races, which were both Grade IIs. Racing back to allowance and overnight stakes class, she seems to have gotten her confidence back, coming in off of a two race win streak. But her numbers and likely running style don’t seem to foreshadow a third in a row here. Some of the boys in this race just might have too much early speed for her.<\/P>
My Picks:<\/B><\/I><\/U><\/P>
1) Sulphur(IRE)\u00a0 – Runs down the speed at the wire.. a photo?<\/B><\/I><\/P>
2) Polish Reality – Bid to wear down the field wire to wire just misses.<\/B><\/I><\/P>
3) Blazing Glory – Fine run but not enough to run down the top two.<\/B><\/I><\/P><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sulphur, Polish Reality, and Others Vie in $500,000 Sprint<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":392,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3087","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3087","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/392"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3087"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3087\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3087"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3087"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3087"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}