\u00a0Eleven horses, all 4 years old or older, will vie for the lion’s share of the $150,000 Winchester Park Cup<\/I><\/B>, a\u00a0 Grade III race of 11 furlongs on Oklahoma’s turf course, expected to be firm. It should be a wide-open affair, with the morning line odds ranging from 7\/2 to 22\/1, with 7 of the 11 entrants at single digit odds. The horses by Post Position:
PP 1 – Kepler of Rock(IRE) (Rock of Gibraltar(IRE) x Kingmambo x Affirmed)<\/I><\/B>. This 4 year old veteran of 34 lifetime races comes in from the bobo <\/I>stable (19%) with moderate speed figures, but has a nice, solid closing style that may perfectly suit today’s race. The pace may not suicidal, but it promises to be at the very least honest, with at least three horses in this field that like to run on or near the lead. Look for this one to be flying down the stretch at the end. The only question is will it be enough?<\/P>
PP 2 – Sly Shot (Silver Hawk x The Minstrel x Prince John)<\/I><\/B> This relatively lightly raced 6 yr old from the varsity <\/I>barn (13%) is one of the early speed horses here, and with an inside post, figures to be out on an early lead. The problem is the speed figures for this trooper are a bit on the light side, having exceeded 90+ only 3 times in his last 8 races. He’s also shown a tendency to fade hard in the stretch on a number of his races, which won’t help at all in this company. The other major concern here is class. He’s picked an awfully tough place to try his first stakes race of any kind. Probably won’t be a factor at the wire.<\/P>
PP 3 – Are You Surprised (Storm Cat x Rahy x Secretariat)<\/I><\/B>. The marquee star of the tidy4 <\/I>stable (14%) comes in with quite a few pluses on his side of the ledger here. He’s got nice tactical speed, able to run near or on the lead, as well as stalk behind the leaders and still finish strong, he’s shown the ability to run close to the kind of speed he’ll need for this race (he ran a 106 three races back), he likes this distance. On the down side, he’s done much of his best racing at the overnight (ungraded) stakes level, and although he did run a 3rd last year in a Grade I stake, he was soundly beaten by 11 lengths and it was a 6 horse field. Consistency is also a bit of a concern, as that 106 speed fig 3 back may have tipped him off form. His last two have been a bit rough. Still, you may find some nice value here as the bottom of an exotic or two.<\/P>
PP 4 – Gallant Wings(GB) (In The Wings(GB) x Key To The Mint x Gallant Man)<\/I><\/B> This guy comes in as an intriguing value pick at 9\/2, especially if you believe in the hot horse of the moment theory. The gboro <\/I>stable (11%) brings this steady worker into the race off of 4 consecutive stakes races where he’s put together a\u00a0 2-1-1 record. And the most recent of these was a sparkling win at 9.5 furlongs, winning going away with an eye-catching 107 speed figure. True, these were all in ungraded stakes, and the longest of them was 10.5 furlongs, but this guy certainly has the breeding to get this distance in his sleep (his dosage index\u00a0 is 0.74, and his C\/D is -0.06, both hugely stamina-supporting, which, according to Dr. Roman, should enable this guy to do between 14 and 18 furlongs). He’s only tried this distance once, and that was a year and a half ago. Could be a big factor here, especially if he doesn’t bounce off of his last.<\/P>
PP 5 – War City (War Chant x Zocor x Carson City)<\/I><\/B> A relatively lightly raced 4 yr old, this daunte6 (14%)<\/I> charge is another deep closer in the mode of Kepler of Rock. In fact, there isn’t a lot to separate the horses in the 1st and 5th posts. A lot will depend on traffic and pace here. The extra furlongs here from his last three races will surely help, but he’ll probably need to goose up his speed figs just a bit. Like Kepler of Rock, this guy will be flying down the stretch as well. Another one you might want to round out the exotics.<\/P>
PP 6 – Arc D’Triumph (Peintre Celebre(IRE) x Alleged x Round Table) <\/I><\/B>The least experienced horse in this race (this will be his 17th lifetime start) , this 4 year old bred and trained by pilotfish1 <\/I>(12%), may still be developing. After taming the allowance classes, his last two races were steps up that he handled pretty well: A very nice 2nd at 9\/1 odds in an ungraded stake, and a fading 4th in a Grade III stakes that he led into the stretch on a yielding grass course. Doesn’t look like even a marginal improvement this time will get this one into the top three, but he definitely looks like he’ll be growing into a late developer that’ll be a voice in stakes races to come.<\/P>
PP 7 – The Madness (Bestyoucanbe x Really Awesome x Sunny’s Halo) <\/I><\/B>Trainer stalchico <\/I>(20%) certainly knows how to win races, and is bringing this 5 year old up a couple of notches in class to try and run down the speed. It might be a bit ambitious, however, as this horse has never raced in a Graded stakes before, and is 0-1-1 in seven lifetime ungraded stakes. He also likes to close down the stretch, but his speed numbers are a bit suspect in this company. This guy looks to be a bit more suited to open allowance company or the occasional overnight stakes race.<\/P>
PP 8 – Woodly (Woodman x Pharly(FR) x My Gallant)<\/I><\/B> This grizzled veteran (a race-high 46 career starts entering Saturday) from the turfsurf <\/I>barn (14%) has been racing in better company than most in this race (This will be his 5th Graded stakes race in his last 9), but the numbers, both speed and finish, haven’t been as sterling (although he did capture a 3rd in the Grade II Ferdichenko Cup seven races back with a 100 speed figure). When he runs his best race, he ‘s a stalker, which could help today, but he’ll need his best race to win here. A slice of the pie isn’t out of the question though.<\/P>
PP 9 – Jumpin’ Java (Java Gold x Seeking The Gold x Spectacular Bid) <\/I><\/B>The morning line favorite at a lukewarm 7\/2 is a solid choice, and may offer some good value for chalk. Breeder\/trainer waradmiral <\/I>(11%) seems to have this horse set up for a good run, and that might mean a trip to the winner’s circle. After a bit of a bounce off of a very impressive win in the Grade III Long Legged Handicap four races back, waradmiral set the Javaman back a bit to run in an allowance. After a 2nd place finish, he was moved up to an ungraded stakes race, where he again finished 2nd, but with a nice little gain in speed figure. He seems to be ready to hit his form in just the right place here. He can stalk off the early speed, and run it down in the stretch, fending off the closers.<\/P>
PP 10 – Lowlands Lost One (Squirtle Squirt x Lost Code x Shirley Heights(GB)) <\/I><\/B>This 4 year old from the zeco6 <\/I>stable (10%)\u00a0 is certainly taking an ambitious step up here. His only previous stakes races were a Grade I 8th (of 10), and an ungraded 3rd, both of which he didn’t hit 90 on the speed fig chart. On the other hand, he’s hit the mid-nineties regularly on the allowance circuit. He still looks a bit overplaced here, and will probably try to get out to an uncontested lead. With this company it probably won’t happen.<\/P>
PP 11 – Doggie Walacki (Kris S. x Zoning x Colorado King)<\/I><\/B> The third choice in the morning line comes to the race from the theagakhan <\/I>barn (17%) with much the same training aim as the favorite, Jumpin Java. After a disappointing 8th in the Grade I Doomben Cup, he was pushed back to allowance company and then ungraded stakes to sharpen up his form. A second then a first seem to have done that. His speed numbers aren’t as impressive as the first two favorites,\u00a0 but the form and style give this guy a definite leg up for the money.<\/P>
My Picks:<\/I><\/U><\/B><\/P>
1) Jumpin Java – big move in the stretch, holds off closers<\/I><\/B><\/P>
2) Gallant Wings – stays with then passes the early speed, can’t hold off the favorite. Close.<\/I><\/B><\/P>
3) Doggie Walacki – stays even, passes tired horses, not enough for the two faves.<\/I><\/B><\/P><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rabbits and Stalkers and Closers, Oh My…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":392,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2861","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2861","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/392"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2861"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2861\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2861"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2861"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2861"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}