{"id":2815,"date":"2006-08-25T21:15:09","date_gmt":"2006-08-25T21:15:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=2815"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=2815","title":{"rendered":"In The ‘Nick’ Of Time: Last Lawn Party Of Summer On NY Grass"},"content":{"rendered":"

And\u2026we\u2019re back.<\/P>

Fivestarnick, in my opinion, is The Greatest Horse Ever.<\/P>

I know what you\u2019re thinking, and you\u2019re right. Fivestarnick is a riff on the one-time reigning Sultan of Saratoga, Fourstardave. He raced at Saratoga every year between 1987 and 1995, and won at least once there every year for eight years. Dave, as he was known, was not just a constant presence on the track, he was a solid stakes winner and had a royal family all his own. He was the winner of the 1988 Grade II St. Paul Derby at 3, as well as a winner of the Grade III Poker and a two-time winner of the Grade III Daryl\u2019s Joy, a race renamed in his honor in 1996. Additionally, his full brother is Fourstar\u2019s Allstar, who captured the Irish Two Thousand Guineas back in 1991, the first American trainee to win a European classic. And, as final testament to a great horse, Dave STILL<\/B><\/I> owns the track record at Saratoga for 8.5 furlongs on the main Mellon turf course, set way the heck back in 1991, at 1:38 4\/5.<\/P>

So it seemed fitting that he got a Sim honor all his own, with this weekend marking the seventh running of the Grade II, $200,000 Fivestarnick Handicap<\/B>, in New York at a mile-and-a-sixteenth. There hasn\u2019t really been a Fivestarnick\u2026<\/P>

(\u2026except for one that I bred in the week following last year\u2019s running. That colt named Fivestarnick is a three-year-old with the pedigree of Fourstars Allstar x Glaros(FR) x Stage Door Johnny, and he would be running on that same New York card, were it not for a stupid error in bidding on a race for him—I thought he was four, instead of three, and bought a race accordingly. He\u2019s in this weekend\u2019s third race at Georgia, instead. So much for naming the horse after the race, but I digress.)<\/P>

Back to this weekend\u2019s main event: it\u2019s been a slow, topsy-turvy year for the grass mile division, and it would appear that many horses have taken the time to throw in some great races along with some races that have been less than admirable. Yet six of the top 30 grass milers in the Sim are here, and they\u2019re headed by the #4 miler Manifest Destiny, who\u2019s been somewhat spotty of late, and winless in six starts since March.<\/P>

Twelve horses were entered, with the favorite\u2019s role falling to Causes Wood(IRE), who is 9-2, but feeling a little deflated himself, with three solid if unspectacular finishes in the money since his last win. Here\u2019s the field:<\/P>

Fusaichi Magpie<\/B> [Fusaichi Pegasus x Danzig, trained by punter59<\/B><\/I>] is #66 in the mile division, and he enters this on a three-race winning streak. The races haven\u2019t been versus the best this division has to offer, but a win is a win, and his, in a pair of GSR allowances and a listed stakes win over some pretty good turf horses, have come impressively enough while stretching out from six furlongs to a mile. While there are others with better overall speed figures here, his really aren\u2019t that bad among these, and the division itself has been something short of predictable, once you drop out of the top three colts. He should sit in mid-pack and hope there\u2019s a duel up front, and having been a graded winner at a mile, the extra distance shouldn\u2019t be necessarily as imposing; intriguing candidate.<\/P>

N O Dawg<\/B> [Distant Music x Lammtarra, trained by jdawg06<\/B><\/I>] is one of a couple horses here for which it is difficult to make a case under the most favorable of circumstances. He\u2019s 80-1 here, and has but a maiden win to his credit, though it should be noted he does have 10 seconds over his 29 starts. He also is stakes-placed at this distance, to be fair, and has served as a hard-knocking allowance horse over a lightly-raced campaign in the last couple of years. But it wasn\u2019t until his last start that he finally cracked the 90 barrier in his speed figures, and in a field that has ten others which have run over 100 at least once, it\u2019s certainly an ambitious placement here. Though he was stakes-placed at this distance previously, his best efforts are usually arriving in mid-range sprints. He\u2019ll make a late run, to be sure, but to be honest, there are others here with better opportunities; a return to a shorter distance might be a good tonic for this horse.<\/P>

Last Groom T<\/B> [Gone West x Blushing Groom(FR), trained by eastecho99<\/B><\/I>] is on the precipice of a career landmark. If he hits the board, at 5-1, he\u2019ll become the Sim\u2019s newest millionaire. His chances as a co-second choice in the betting are very good. He\u2019s #14 in the division, and he\u2019s turned a corner in his last five starts, with three wins and two seconds in that span, including a Grade I win in the Jack The Man in France last time. That start earned him a 108, and coupled with his second win in as many years in the Philly Cheese Steak Turf three back, this makes him one of the steadiest of milers in the entire turf portion of the Sim at present. He\u2019s equally at home setting the pace as coming off of it, and here he\u2019s likely to close late following an expected speed duel. He\u2019s the “now” horse, as they say, and if he has running room from that inside post late, watch out. His weakness might be his jock, a three-time winner on the New York circuit all year.<\/P>

Causes Wood(IRE)<\/B> [Giant\u2019s Causeway(IRE)-Scoopy Grass, by Woodman, trained by ruby7<\/B><\/I>] has risen up to #5 through an arduous regimen of longer grass races, for which he\u2019s gone 11-for-19 in the last 24 months. Many of these races, including his victories in this year\u2019s Grade II Sanders and Grade II Hallelujah Turf Cup, have been at distances of nine furlongs and greater, and he\u2019s usually been the front-runner in these events. He is only 1-for-4 at distances under a mile in his career. I don\u2019t profess to know a whole helluva lot about pace in the Sim, but it would seem the pace for a shorter race is going to be faster than one for a marathon. The question is just how fast has he been running in these other races going longer? Whatever the answer, he\u2019s not going to have the lead without conflict, with at least two others with the capacity to head to the front for as long as they can. He\u2019s an effective middle-distance grass horse, and his speed figures are solid for this class of competition, but it must be admitted that he\u2019s a major question mark at this distance, particularly against some hard-bitten company; this should be stiffer than he thought it could be. <\/P>

Beyer Beware<\/B> [Dayjur x Distorted Humor, trained by lenny271<\/B><\/I>] is #22 for his much-maligned trainer. He\u2019s much maligned for a good reason: his stock, headed by this colt, is talented, and spotted very well, present company included; this colt is 4-for-5 at this mile-and-a-sixteenth distance, including the Grade I Fort Lauderdale Cap six back. He ran into a hotter colt in the Philly Cheese Steak two starts ago in Last Groom T<\/B>, but he remains a stalwart contender at this level, his speed figures remaining in the 100\u2019s even when running into trouble as in the Smackdown race last out. The distance and jockey are assets, as is a two or three-pronged speed duel expected up front here (this one is a very strong deep closing threat), but after starting the year with speed figures approaching 110, they\u2019ve fallen back a bit closer to 100. Might he have peaked in the spring, or is he due for a bit of a renaissance in his speed figures to edge closer to springtime? This could be a good bellwether for his immediate future.<\/P>

Dandy Sparky<\/B> [Cresta Rider x Secretariat, trained by proti<\/B><\/I>] is the other outsider (here, 99-1, possibly higher than that by post-time) for which a BTB writer\u2019s ability to stretch the positive attributes of all contenders in a field is sorely tested. So, bear with me. This colt at least has two wins lifetime, and he\u2019s hit the board in 12 of his 33 career starts. In fact, you have to go back to December of 2002 to find a race in which he was worse than fourth. And he\u2019s certainly fresh, having been off since December 17, 2005. Of course, if you\u2019re astute, you can deduce why his results have been that good, and why he\u2019s been that fresh, without going to the past performances: because he\u2019s been a computer-owned horse since December 2002. He hasn\u2019t thrown a speed figure higher than 70 on turf ever, and his best overall number was a 73 on dirt earlier this year. It is honestly nothing personal to the trainer, for whom we all wish success to in the future, but this horse really isn\u2019t cut out for this Grade II field. And I think that\u2019s about the kindest thing I could say.<\/P>

El Nino Rapido<\/B> [Mineshaft x Storm Cat, trained by oaklawn66<\/B><\/I>] is the other source of speed in the field. He\u2019s very comfortable taking them out swiftly in these mile tests, but while it has paid off in five stakes wins (including the Grade III Kasuda Yinen Mile four back), he has been collared late more often than he\u2019s wired them. The last couple outings are solid cases in point: he opened up a two-and-a-half length lead in the stretch of the Fried Rice Mile last out, before getting swallowed whole by Gold Inferno and fading to fourth, beaten just over four lengths. To lose almost seven lengths in the final quarter of a race, a horse must have been flying too fast early on. Ditto the Smackdown race two back: never got out too far in front, but nailed at the head of the stretch by Machinator, going from a length in front to being beaten six-and-a-half at the end. There\u2019s no denying his speed, his talent, or his ability to hang with the best, with eight of twelve starts in 2006 earning speed figures of 100 or better, though nothing topping the 106 he\u2019s earned four times in his career. But with another horse who\u2019s willing to go out early on the lead in Causes Wood(IRE)<\/B>, one has to wonder what kind of pace is going to be set, and who\u2019s going to get clear early. He\u2019s mucho rapido indeed, but his vice might not be his virtue against these.<\/P>

Rise To KLP<\/B> [Capote x Nureyev, trained by mccoy<\/B><\/I>] knows how to win, having captured 19 of 41 starts. He knows winning on grass, having all but $29,000 of his $1.3 million on the lawn en route to being ranked #19 in the classic division. But most of his efforts have come at distances longer than this, from nine furlongs and beyond. He\u2019s a big-time closer, coming from well off the pace, and his career credentials include a win this year in the Grade I Keg Of Guinness (his first graded win) among four victories in 2006. But his vice might be his virtue—for all his abilities in longer races, he\u2019s unbeaten in two starts on the grass at this distance. And there\u2019s enough pace in front of him to make a sustained late bid. A more troubling stat might be, in spite of his recent graded win, he\u2019s hit the board more times (4) than he\u2019s won (1) in nine graded tries. He\u2019s nothing if not experienced, and his recent numbers certainly prove him capable, but can he compete against a strong field?<\/P>

Want To Dance<\/B> [Mr. Greeley x Habitat, trained by sjmeola6<\/B><\/I>], with nine career starts, is the lightest-raced horse here. He\u2019s one of just two three-year-olds opting to try to compete against older (the other being Depravity<\/B>), and is a higher-ranked sprinter (#40 against others his age) than a miler (#230). He\u2019s bound to get better, though, if the Smackdown race last out is any indication. He closed well that day to be second with a 102 speed figure, beaten only two lengths, a much better result than his one previous try at a mile, when he was too close early and faded to eighth in the Dracula earlier this spring. Unlike a couple of the other horses likely to be involved in the pace, he doesn\u2019t require having it for his best effort—he can just lay off it and wait. This colt is 5-for-8 this year, all wins coming under a mile. Stretching out is something he can do effectively, and if he doesn\u2019t get sucked into that pace vacuum, he could be a factor here. This is a promising colt, one who\u2019s just now hitting his stride, and is a good value at 21-1 despite his relative inexperience.<\/P>

Colonel Childers<\/B> [Aptitude x Pleasant Colony, trained by lopo87<\/B><\/I>] is #30 in the division, and is 4-for-6 this year. And this year has been pretty good to him, with wins in both the Grade III Port Marshua and the Grade I Moonshine Mile two back. This is another deep closing threat, which fits the pace scenario pretty well, and his speed figures are consistent, with a high of 111 in his season debut in Jamaica, as well as a 109 in the Grade I win. They are, on the whole, a far cry from his first couple of seasons on the track. And it\u2019s a great return on the owner\u2019s initial $7,500 investment when he was claimed back in April 2004. He\u2019ll be coming late, and this one\u2019s just hitting his stride as a turf miler this summer; definitely a factor late.<\/P>

Manifest Destiny<\/B> [Storm Cat-Stardust Miracle, by Fusaichi Pegasus, trained by tigerman<\/B><\/I>] is #4 in the classic division, but he\u2019s been suffering more through a stream of near-misses than assuming the mantle of Sim star as many expected him to earlier this year. He has a Grade I win this year, in the Crock Of Gold, and actually, his year isn\u2019t all that bad by any other standard; he\u2019s earned a paycheck in each of nine starts this year and has hit the board in three other graded races. He debuted with a 113 in California, and followed it up with a second in the Equinics (a 110), but that\u2019s been more the rule than the exception; while the speed figures have been strong, the results (7-1-1-1) have been something less than the early promise. As ever, expect to see him sitting in mid-pack, and ready for some kind of late move. He is unbeaten at this distance, though, so if ever there was a time for this colt to get back on a winning track, this mile-and-a-sixteenth would be the place.<\/P>

Depravity<\/B> [Red Bullet-Minesterial, by Deputy Minister, trained by funster<\/B><\/I>] draws the outside. This three-year-old has more seasoning than the other one in her, with seven wins in 19 starts, and close to $600,000 in earnings thus far. But this turf thing is a very new experience. He was on the Triple Crown trail, with a win in the Grade III Gary Asher in the spring, but a fourteenth in the Bluegrass Derby put an early end to any dirt glory in this crop. He just made his grass debut last out, but it was a mighty debut against older horses, where he closed from nowhere to be second versus his elders in a Virginia stakes. His inaugural grass figure of 104 shows a lot of promise, but this isn\u2019t some listed event, it\u2019s a Grade II, and this isn\u2019t against colts his age, this is against the cream of the turf crop. He\u2019ll need to show more. But it should be noted that his late running style, youth and relative experience do push him closer to the front here, and that this make-or-break moment is going to be quite telling when it comes to this generation of three-year-olds turns out to be upon reflection.<\/P>

Selections:<\/P>

1. Last Groom T<\/P>

2. Manifest Destiny<\/P>

3. Colonel Childers<\/P>

4. Fusaichi Magpie<\/P>

5. Want To Dance<\/P><\/B><\/DIR><\/DIR>

Good luck, and take it easy.<\/P><\/FONT><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Manifest Destiny, Causes Wood(IRE) Stiff Competition In Grade II Tussle<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":123,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2815","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/123"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2815"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2815\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2815"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2815"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2815"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}