{"id":2221,"date":"2006-04-21T08:28:56","date_gmt":"2006-04-21T08:28:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=2221"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_99","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=2221","title":{"rendered":"Look of Eagles &#8211; A Hollywood Derby"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s getting very close to Derby time and of course that inspires everyone to have a Derby opinion.  TM and myself recently aired our own thoughts in a running exchange about the Derby.  We agreed on some things, and disagreed on others.  We finally discovered that most of the top Derby horses are analogous to Hollywood actresses.  Insane you say?  Perhaps, but that\u2019s the sort of conclusion you get with today\u2019s fast food media society.  Here is our effort at building up the hype.<\/p>\n<p>TM: <\/p>\n<p>Last year, I remember stating that I could only conceivably see four horses winning the Derby. I think they were Alex, Bellamy Road, Greeley&#8217;s Galaxy, &#038; Wilko. This year, I think I could make a pretty convincing case (to myself at least) for about 10 of them. Here&#8217;s my six big questions you have to answer before betting the Derby, from most important to least&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>1) Who&#8217;s going with Sinister Minister?<\/p>\n<p>The scariest horse this year is Sinister Minister, period. If he gets 1-1\/2 lengths and the track is somewhat speed favoring, I&#8217;m gonna be scared to death if I didn&#8217;t bet him. (Yes, I&#8217;m sorta considering him right now.) Put yourself in the place of any trainer who&#8217;s got a horse right now. You know that if you go with him, your horse is screwed. If you hold back, you&#8217;re pretty much gambling that someone else is going to go, but if no one does, see ya. It&#8217;s a complete Catch-22. Right now, that candidates to go with him are Sharp Humor, Keyed Entry, Like Now (if he goes), Brother Derek, &#038; Lawyer Ron. I don&#8217;t think there&#8217;s anything else that appears to probably want the lead big time. At this point, it seems fairly obvious that Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron, &#038; Keyed Entry are going to try to rate, so that leaves Like Now &#038; Sharp Humor. Sharp Humor looks like he wants to go fast &#8211; he did go 44 &#038; change in the Swale &#8211; but he slowed down a little for the FL Derby. However, he doesn&#8217;t look like the ratable type, so maybe he goes. Like Now is in about the same boat, but he probably needs to at least run well in the Lexington.<\/p>\n<p>Three crazy rabbit theories I can think of&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Most Likely: Either the connections of Keyed Entry, Sharp Humor, or Like Now wise up, realize all the closers probably suck, hope they only have to go 46 &#038; change, and see if they can just outlast them.<\/p>\n<p>Not too Likely: Lael Stables has Barbaro, who&#8217;s clearly a top contender. Meanwhile, they also have Showing Up, a nice speedy colt who probably doesn&#8217;t have the seasoning anyway, &#038; plus, if you want a horse to win the Derby, at least get it to be the Dynaformer who could maybe be worth something as a stallion. Send Showing Up on the suicide mission &#038; just hope.<\/p>\n<p>Really unlikely, but most sensible if you think about: Put yourself in this position. Your Shekih Mohammad. You&#8217;ve got the best Derby prospect you&#8217;ve ever had, by far, in Discreet Cat. You got billions of dollars, and there is no race you want to win more than the KY Derby. Obviously, you don&#8217;t want to destroy Discreet Cat by going for a scary speedball, but you don&#8217;t have to, b\/c you got the trump card: Henny Hughes. So what if you spent $4.3 million on him &#8211; you made $4.3 million in the time it took to read this sentence. Send Henny after him&#8230;heck, you could just make him go 6f &#038; pull him up, just make it a work or something. Then let the chaos ensue!<\/p>\n<p>2) Is there a truly quality closer?<\/p>\n<p>Just at first glance, the best closer in the race is probably going to be around 20\/1. Now, we&#8217;re left with a problem that I&#8217;ve encountered seemingly thousands of times when handicapping: do you take the obviously superior speed horses, or side w\/ the less talented closers that get the setup? After years of looking, I&#8217;ve come to the conclusion that you go w\/ the quality speed, &#038; assume one of them will either be best of the best, or one shows an ability to rate\/close that they never had to show before. However, you can obviously trump this if you think there&#8217;s a closer that&#8217;s talented enough. Personally, I&#8217;m not seeing one. Point Determined looks like a dead grinder\/plodder to me. A.P. Warrior is Jekyll\/Hyde, but even if Jekyll shows up, it&#8217;s probably only best for third. Cause to Believe is probably the best closer, but he still hasn&#8217;t broken 100, so he&#8217;s a scary proposition.<\/p>\n<p>3) What will the odds look like?<\/p>\n<p>If you&#8217;re like me, you plan your attack the night before, so you gotta have a bit of a handle on how the odds are gonna be. I don&#8217;t know how the odds are going to shape up. I&#8217;d say your top three choices are Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron, &#038; Discreet Cat, who&#8217;s getting so much hype it isn&#8217;t funny (then again, he could be a beast). The only thing I&#8217;m certain of here is that Ron will probably be longer than Bro D no matter what. Then, I&#8217;d say we&#8217;re looking at Barbaro, Sweetnorthernsaint, Bob and John, and Sinister Minister as the 4th-7th choice. So that means that these four could all be anywhere from 8\/1-15\/1. After that, who else will get bet? I&#8217;m hearing a lot of Point Determined &#038; A.P. Warrior hype. What if Showing Up, Sunriver, or Like Now looks great winning the Lexington? Could Bluegrass Cat still take money? <\/p>\n<p>(Side note: wanna know the only reason it&#8217;s been 50 years since a horse hasn&#8217;t won off a 5 week layoff in so long? B\/c what Derby prep as big as the Florida Derby used to be run more than four weeks out? Don&#8217;t believe the 5-week hype here &#8211; it&#8217;s not as big as you think.)<\/p>\n<p>4) Can this field be limited down to 10-12 horse that I can GUARANTEE they&#8217;ll be the tri?<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m of the opinion now that the best way to try &#038; hit the Derby is take a horse &#038; wheel him up &#038; down in three tri&#8217;s with 8-11 other horses (doing this w\/ 11 horses costs 1 x 10 x 11 x 3 = $330&#8230;.w\/ 8, a mere 1 x 8 x 7 x 3 = $168 ). Obviously, it&#8217;s impossible to tell right now w\/o post positions, but there are some that I feel are tosses right now. Jazil hasn&#8217;t broken 90 &#8211; see ya. Sharp Humor is in the &#8220;damned if you do, damned if you don&#8217;t&#8221; position &#8211; I can toss him. Private Vow probably needs one more before he&#8217;s all the way there &#8211; I guess I&#8217;ll toss him. Did I miss something, or is Greater Good back for more under the name Steppenwolfer? No thanks on him. Tough to limit things down totally.<\/p>\n<p>5) What Beyers should be believed &#038; not believed in the last round of preps?<\/p>\n<p>Anyone who didn&#8217;t buy Bellamy Road&#8217;s 119 or whatever looked pretty smart last year. Here&#8217;s what we&#8217;re looking at for the six preps:<\/p>\n<p>Wood Memorial: 93<br \/>Blue Grass: 116<br \/>Illinois Derby: 109<br \/>Arkansas Derby: 98<br \/>FL Derby: 103<br \/>SA Derby: 108<\/p>\n<p>I already ranked in order for most to least questionable. The Wood just seems to be one of those races to toss for all involved &#8211; even the winner. Bob and John didn&#8217;t even seem to run his best (had Keyed Entry handled the track, I&#8217;d say he would&#8217;ve won by four &#038; we&#8217;d be talking about a much different looking Derby picture). Of course, we had to get a freak performance at some point. Keeneland produces crap like this all the time, so you can&#8217;t take too much from it. The IL Derby always gets a big fig, so it&#8217;s tough to love it. The rest look about in line.<\/p>\n<p>6) Who are the overlays &#038; underlays?<\/p>\n<p>Let&#8217;s start with the underlays. I think we&#8217;re looking at two horses that are going to be way too short: Lawyer Ron &#038; Point Determined. LR has not run exceptionally fast except for the Risen Star, which is getting more and more questionable every day. Put LR in Cali, &#038; does he seem any different (Beyer-wise) from PD &#038; AP Warrior? Speaking of PD, he&#8217;s the hype closer everyone is latching on to. How do I know this? B\/c my dad likes him, &#038; he has an uncanny ability for picking that horse out every year (he was dead-on five weeks out last year w\/ Noble Causeway).<\/p>\n<p>Now, overlays. Keyed Entry is a talented animal, &#038; I&#8217;m tossing the Wood for all involved. He&#8217;s gonna be around 40\/1, so why not give him a look? I also got a feeling Sweetnorthernsaint or Barbaro is gonna float up a bit too much.<\/p>\n<p>Well, there&#8217;s my six. Add more questions if you want, or try to answer some of mine.<\/p>\n<p>WAR EMBLEM:<\/p>\n<p>Some thoughts&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>1b) Sinister Minister &#8211; The question I think you have to ask is this. Do you think Sinister Minister is good enough to go gate to wire on the strongest Derby field this decade? If your answer is no, then he&#8217;s a toss. If yes, then play him. I think no because I see this race unfolding much like last year. <\/p>\n<p>2) Should we toss everyone from the Wood? I&#8217;m inclined to think so. TM, you want to toss the Wood performances so you can still play Keyed Entry. Not sure why you like him still, but that horse can&#8217;t even dream of getting 10 furlongs against this field without getting nightmares. I&#8217;m saying toss the whole field. Brother Derek, Sweetnorthernsaint and Lawyer Ron are all better horses with the same style as Bob and John so I don&#8217;t have a problem dropping him. Looking at Jazil&#8217;s PPs and yes, he does look too slow. Deputy Glitters can complain about the off track, but after Bluegrass Cat flopped I&#8217;m not too high on him (if he even goes)<\/p>\n<p>3) Don&#8217;t fight History &#8211; There is a reason historical trends hold up. They are true. Yes, someday a horse might break the trend, but odds are the horse you are thinking of playing won&#8217;t. Based on this, we toss Barbaro and Discreet Cat (at least for the win spot). Both have serious history against them, either too inexperienced or too long of a layoff before the Derby.<\/p>\n<p>4) Occam&#8217;s Razor &#8211; Arkham&#8217;s Razor states that the most obvious answer to a problem is usually the correct one. If everyone would have applied this theory to the Derby two years ago then everyone would have picked Smarty Jones and won. This year, are we all just trying to pick reasons not to like Brother Derek? The horse runs a 100+ Beyer every time out satisfying TM and Dan&#8217;s great horse criteria. The horse has tactical speed, which is the generally acceptable running method that gives you the best chance to win the Derby. The horse has been dubbed a look of eagles\u2019 horse by none other than Steve Haskin. Some might think this applies to Lawyer Ron, but I disagree. I ever area of the above Brother Derek is superior to Lawyer Ron. Plus, Lawyer Ron has already lost 7 races. Will Brother Derek lose 7 races in his entire career?<\/p>\n<p>5) Tempting but stick with Rachael McAdams &#8211; OK, you&#8217;ve watched The Notebook, Red Eye and Wedding Crashers. You know you like Rachael McAdams and she&#8217;s your top pick for the role you&#8217;re casting. Then you see Keira Knightly in Pride and Prejudice and remember she was in Pirates of the Caribbean and King Arthur. Or you see Jessica Biel and think, maybe if she would have just had a better script in Stealth. Stop trying to talk yourself out of Rachael McAdams. Yes, both Keira and Jessica have something going for them, but you&#8217;re going to have a better movie with Rachael. Using this rational, I&#8217;m excluding Sharp Humor, whom I like and everyone who likes Barbaro should as well, but he&#8217;s a speed horse potential pace victim coming into the Derby off a long layoff. Next. Steppenwolfer, why would I consider him when I like A.P. Warrior and Point Determined much better? Bluegrass Cat, looks too slow right now. Lawyer Ron, no reason to like him over Derek or the Saint. <\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s 10 I&#8217;m saying aren&#8217;t going to win.<\/p>\n<p>So who can win? Right now I can see the following horses having a chance to win.<\/p>\n<p>Brother Derek, Sweetnorthernsaint, A.P. Warrior, Point Determined, Cause to Believe.<\/p>\n<p>That leaves 5 more&#8230;not sure who I am missing.<\/p>\n<p>TM:<\/p>\n<p>I actually like your thoughts on Sinister Minister. It&#8217;s true that this, or &#8217;03, is clearly the best Derby field of THE NEW MILLENNIUM! I think that&#8217;s a little too cut and dry though&#8230;he shouldn&#8217;t be your key, but lord knows he&#8217;s a scary toss.<\/p>\n<p>Actually on the Wood, I&#8217;m only going to use Keyed Entry, but no way I make him my main horse. I&#8217;m stuck between Sweetnorthernsaint &#038; Barbaro for that honor (leaning toward &#8216;Saint). Bob and John is too scary to toss&#8230;I&#8217;m not about to miss a Derby tri b\/c I tossed a Baffert horse who won two of the major preps. (Granted, he did run away from Bro D w\/ his tail between his legs &#8211; nice!) For some reason, I just can&#8217;t bring myself to toss Deputy Glitters, despite Bluegrass Cat&#8217;s performance&#8230;guess I like Jose Lezcano too much.<\/p>\n<p>Regarding your fighting history theory, I&#8217;m still of the opinion that Barbaro is fighting this only b\/c this is only the second year the FL Derby has been run five weeks out. If the FL Derby had been in this spot for 20 years, I think something would&#8217;ve come out of this race. I mean&#8230;.it&#8217;s seven days! A good horse will have no problem overcoming this, esp. a horse who has proven to thrive w\/ extra time off.<\/p>\n<p>Occam\u2019s Razor sounds a little philosophical for the racetrack.  But, Hey&#8230;great horses ARE fast! That&#8217;s why they&#8217;re great &#8211; they win! If this worked every year, then my Derby glass would read as follows&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>2005: Afleet Alex<br \/>2004: Smarty Jones<br \/>2003: Empire Maker<br \/>2002: Harlan&#8217;s Holiday? (Man&#8230;)<br \/>2001: Point Given (Despite being a Monarchos fan, I put that)<\/p>\n<p>Eh, one outta five. <br \/>Speaking of Rachael McAdams was Red Eye good?<\/p>\n<p>I guess &#8220;Keira&#8221; is A.P. Warrior &#8211; one good one &#038; nothing else (hey, I liked Pirates though!), and &#8220;Jessica&#8221;&#8230;Point Determined? &#8220;Rachel&#8221; appears to be Brother Derek &#8211; does everything right. However, you forgot about someone&#8230;Rachel Weisz! Sure, she&#8217;s not extremely hot, but she is &#8220;attainable hot&#8221; (aka you could see a loser like yourself dating a chick who looks as good as her), which is always alright. She&#8217;s made some real good ones like The Mummy duo &#038; Constantine, which are real good, but not amazing. Then, she gets that best supporting actor for The Constant Gardner. Now, how do you refuse that? I&#8217;ll let you guess who that is in this Derby field.<\/p>\n<p>WAR EMBLEM:<\/p>\n<p>You may not be completely off base on the Florida Derby.  I guess Maybe. For all intents and purposes, Barbaro is also almost a 2 prepper. I just don&#8217;t think he&#8217;s sharp enough to win against these horses. Barbaro, more so than some of the others seems one of the most likely to be buried coming for home. Then again, If he wins I&#8217;ll be sitting around Saturday evening wondering how I didn&#8217;t play an undefeated GI winner. Still, you have to handicap some to play against and he&#8217;s the one I&#8217;m playing against (after deciding Sinister Minister won&#8217;t emulate the great War Emblem).<\/p>\n<p>Even excluding the Rachael bias I would have to say yes, Red Eye was good. Very well acted by both her and the villain. Flight Plan, which I assume was the prequel to Panic Room, was also good. Obviously its much more fun to watch Rachael for 100 minutes on a plane than it is to watch Jodie Foster though. <\/p>\n<p>Hmmm&#8230;Yes there is Rachael Weisz as well, and you do have a good point on actually seeing yourself being able to go out with a girl that looks like Rachael. Rachael W was loaded for bear in the Mummy flicks and was excellent in Confidence (Ed Burns, Dustin Hoffman). I thought Constant Gardner was the best movie of the year though her character wasn&#8217;t exactly likable (unless you like hugging trees and saving the world) By her pretty good but under the radar Oscar performance I&#8217;m guessing she&#8217;s Barbaro. <\/p>\n<p>Another who you may factor in is Jessica Alba, who\u2019s clearly the Lawyer Ron of this group. Not much of a factor early on in her career (Idle Hands), she&#8217;s gone one to always acquit herself well though never really having anything challenging to do in a movie (F4, Into the Blue, Sin City). A good-looking filly who has looked strong in her movies, but has never had to face off with a serious actor and hold her own. You just have a sneaking suspicion that she couldn&#8217;t carry a role by herself, despite how good she looks in a bikini.<\/p>\n<p>TM:<\/p>\n<p>I was thinking Sweetnorthernsaint w\/ Weisz &#8211; hence, the &#8220;attainable hot&#8221; thing, b\/c of the sub par connections\/pedigree &#8211; and she didn&#8217;t really hit huge till the Oscar thing, but was always good in the Mummy movies &#038; Constantine and (how&#8217;d I forget) Enemy at the Gates. If I was going to pick someone for Barbaro, I&#8217;d have to pick an actress who was able to really cross genres well &#8211; like his turf &#038; dirt thing. There so different that it&#8217;s amazing a horse can do both well. That&#8217;s kinda like going from the romantic comedies to hardcore action. Barbaro is your girl Kate Beckingsale.<\/p>\n<p>I wonder how far we can take this&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>WAR EMBLEM:<\/p>\n<p>Beckingsale is Barbaro! Brilliant!<\/p>\n<p>The greater question is, can anyone play this game, or do you need a good foundation of the Sports Guy to be able to make the analogies?  Never underestimate our ability to go the distance.  We can do this like Mike McD sitting down with Teddy KGB, alligator blood, hanging around, hanging around.<\/p>\n<p>I think we can see more than a little Piper Perabo in Jazil. Piper looked outstanding in her big screen debut. She looked like she was going to be an absolute force to be reckoned with. However, in retrospect, the effort in Coyote Ugly was more flash than substance and in fact she didn&#8217;t even go on to be the most successful filly from that movie. Bridget Monyingham went on to date Tom Brady and make movies with Ben Affleck and John Cusack while Maria Bella gets all the roles where you need a decent looking blonde whose in her mid-40s and will work for about $200K a picture. So while it looked like Piper was making a big move on the contenders in Coyote Ugly, the fact was she just wasn&#8217;t that talented. I was stunned to see Piper in a 3rd rate horror (The Cave) flick a couple weeks ago, and it appears her claim to fame these days is doing Cheaper by the Dozen 3. I&#8217;m sure we&#8217;ll be seeing Jazil in some similar type of races next year. <\/p>\n<p>TM:<\/p>\n<p>A good question. Having an A in Sports Guy 101 certainly helps. <\/p>\n<p>Like the Jazil\/Perabo comparison. I think I got another one&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Jennifer Lopez started out with a lot of promise in Selena. She gets a ton of pub from her music career &#038; famous relationships, and you start thinking, &#8220;wow, she&#8217;s a huge star, right?!&#8221; Meanwhile, she&#8217;s making stuff like Maid in Manhattan, the Wedding Planner, &#038; The Cell&#8230;not much there, but could certainly result in something. What does that something turn out to be? Gigli. Yes, quite possibly the crappiest movie ever to feature to A-list actors in her &#038; Ben Affleck. So who is Jennifer Lopez? Of course, she&#8217;s Bluegrass Cat!<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m struggling to come up w\/ Discreet Cat. Hmmmm&#8230;..<\/p>\n<p>WAR EMBLEM:<\/p>\n<p>Haha&#8230;OK, OK, that&#8217;s a good one I think. Right down to J-Lo playing a mom in some Cowboy movie with Robert Redford (Unfulfilled Life) I&#8217;d say that&#8217;s pretty similar to the GIII Bluegrass Cat wins later this year with a 97 Beyer.<\/p>\n<p>I think Discreet Cat is Scarlet Johansson. Scarlet gets a ton of hype, gets called an &#8216;it&#8217; girl and is on everyone&#8217;s lips as the next big thing, but what has she done? Her claim to fame was Lost in Translation, which was set in a foreign land and you&#8217;re never really sure how good of a movie it is. Some people claim it was a great flick, while others don&#8217;t give it much respect. Everyone talks about her being the next great actress, but you just don&#8217;t know do you? Would you bet your life on it? Or more specifically, would you trust her to open a $100 million dollar movie? Can she really do what Keira Knightley does? Haven&#8217;t all her roles been in independent films that haven&#8217;t had a big audience and suddenly she wants center stage. She certainly has great genetics, she looked like a poster child for future girls in the Island (if the future girls had a quasi-fascist tint to them) but its all speculation on how she would hold up if forced to share the screen with Angelina Jolie.<\/p>\n<p>Angelina Jolie is Secretariat by the way. She would just pummel all these girls on the screen. Did you see the way she ruined Winnona Ryder&#8217;s career in Girl, Interrupted?<\/p>\n<p>TM:<\/p>\n<p>Ugh, of course. Dead on w\/ both Scarlett &#038; Angelina. I think I got another one&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Jennifer Garner makes it HUGE on the small screen w\/ Alias, so it&#8217;s only sensible to think it&#8217;ll transfer over to movies, right? Well, so far we&#8217;ve gotten 13 Going on 30 &#038; Elektra out of it&#8230;not quite what I would call making the leap from small time to big time. Yes, Jennifer Garner, meet Cause to Believe!<\/p>\n<p>Note: You could take Deputy Glitters on this one too.<\/p>\n<p>WAR EMBLEM:<\/p>\n<p>I think that works with Jennifer Garner. She was a huge hit as Sydney Bristow remember and scored a pretty nice win with 13 Going on 30, but then goes and gets pregnant and kind of fades out of the picture, and you&#8217;re really left wondering what the heck happened. Wasn&#8217;t 13 Better Than 30 better than anything you could see Keira Knightley doing? Yet somehow Keira goes on to score huge with Pride and Prejudice and Garner is left making embarrassing episodes of Alias when she&#8217;s 7 months pregnant and can barely waddle across the screen. Just a shocking turn of events.<\/p>\n<p>Bob and John seems clearly like Brittney Murphy to me. Like Baffert, who hasn&#8217;t been able to hit the Derby with anything fruitful lately, Murphy started out humbly playing 3rd fiddle in Clueless. She then pulled the trick that Rachael McAdams would emulate in Mean Girls and somehow stole the career of other actresses in the film vaulting herself past them and on to stardom while they dropped off into the unemployment line or late night skinemax flicks. Can you imagine Alicia Silverstone sitting around right now stuffing her face with frosted animal crackers shouting at the TV, I was Cher from Clueless how does the fat CWT chick steal my career!!?? <\/p>\n<p>But it happened. Somehow, Brittney Murphy teamed up with Eminem and was stunningly convincing as his girlfriend. Suddenly she&#8217;s headlining movies with Aston Kutcher (Just Married), which culminates in someone actually giving her a movie to open with Upton Girls. Wait a minute, huh? Brittney Murphy is opening movies, how did this happen? So eventually everyone shakes their head, tosses the movies she was in, takes Dakota Fanning from Uptown Girls and moves on still wondering how they were conned into thinking a 5&#8217;2&#8243; girl from Alabama was able to almost get them thinking she was &#8216;A&#8217; list material.<\/p>\n<p>TM:<\/p>\n<p>Bob and John as Brittney Murphy&#8230;.I&#8217;ll buy it. I was struggling to come up w\/ one there too. I was maybe thinking Charlize Theron &#8211; you never really think much about her, then you look at her body of work &#038; realize she&#8217;s done quite a lot &#8211; Italian Job, Devil&#8217;s Advocate, Monster &#8211; much like Bob and John almost quietly winning the Wood &#038; Sham; well, as quietly as a top Baffert prospect can at least. Maybe Charlize can fit in somewhere else. (Sinister Minister? Nah&#8230;.I think I can do better on the Minister&#8230;)<\/p>\n<p>However Todd, I think we both missed an extremely obvious one&#8230;.until now&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Denise Richards&#8230;she was bound to show up here. She made a lot of nice little movies early on, like the surprisingly successful Starship Troopers, Wild Things, &#038; Drop Dead Gorgeous. Nothing major, but good. Then came what was supposed to be her turning point: being the Bond Girl in The World is Not Enough. What&#8217;s that turning point lead to? Undercover Brother &#038; guest starring in her (ex?) husband\u2019s bad sitcoms. Starting w\/ so much promise &#038; fizzling late, Denise Richards is Private Vow.<\/p>\n<p>Thought about Sinister Minister for a second and came up with something. It&#8217;s a little unconventional, so you gotta follow me on this one.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m gonna match Sinister Minister w\/ the public perception of Elisha Cuthbert&#8217;s hotness. Yeah, there was 24, where she was ok, but nothing major (like SM&#8217;s 102 maiden score). Then, go to Old School, where she&#8217;s the cute high school kid. Definitely seeing something here, esp. w\/ the morning after scene, but she just isn&#8217;t used enough, so it&#8217;s sorta wasted. I&#8217;m matching that w\/ SM&#8217;s Cal Derby, where you can only guess what would&#8217;ve happened had he not bashed into the rail. Then, here comes The Girl Next Door. Almost overnight, I couldn&#8217;t find a single guy who didn&#8217;t think Elisha Cuthbert was hot. After I watched the movie, I began to think she was a top five hottie even. Of course, this is SM&#8217;s Blue Grass. Obviously, Elisha mania has tapered off, thanks to her doing that stupid House of Wax movie probably, &#038; this could be what happens to SM.<\/p>\n<p>WAR EMBLEM:<\/p>\n<p>How could I forget Denise Richards?  Of course she needs a post.  Who can ever forget her Wild Things moments?  Although I will never, ever understand how she got to make Starship Troopers without the gratuitous nudity shot.  I think Elisha Cuthbert can work because I agree; she almost vaulted her way into top 5 hotness based on Girl Next Door. Sinister Ministers seems to have a War Emblem factor going though&#8230;what can Elisha&#8217;s upside be? I guess I could see her being a Bond girl.<\/p>\n<p>Another fairly obvious one we forgot was Katie Holmes. I see Katie Holmes looking a lot like Keyed Entry. Katie started to generate a lot of buzz in the Dawson years. After leaving Dawson, she started to turn in some reasonably solid and cute performances. Everyone loved her in Go and Teaching Mrs. Tingle. She started to roll with her girl next-door image and there was talk she might be the next Sandra Bullock. Then came Wonder Boys in which she was perfect for the role and benefited from a great ensemble cast followed by the stunning revelation of her talent in the Gift when we see her naked. Katie&#8217;s stock is pretty high at that time and even if we aren&#8217;t thrilled with her work in Abandon and Phone Booth, she&#8217;s still pretty solid and has a tremendous upside. We start thinking, wouldn&#8217;t Vanilla Sky have been an even better movie with Katie Holmes in the Penelope Cruz role? Well then the Wood happened. She made Pieces of April, which was just disastrous. What girl next door type chooses a role where she&#8217;s decked out in Goth gear? This debacle is followed up by Tom Cruise taking our musings literally and dumping Penelope for Katie. America collectively gags and suddenly all that Katie Holmes potential is a thing of the past. We still think there is talent there, but we&#8217;re no longer sure she&#8217;s the next Sandra Bullock and we&#8217;re pretty sure she isn&#8217;t going to get premier girl next door status (a title which Rachael McAdams can claim with one more good romantic comedy) .<\/p>\n<p>Another is the Deputy Glitters and Tara Reid comparison. Deputy Glitters was pretty much under the radar. Sure we knew there was a horse that ran a tough second to Bluegrass Cat in the Remsen, but we weren&#8217;t really sure whom it was. Tara Reid was that actress from Urban Legends, American Pie and Josie and the Pussycats. Of course you weren&#8217;t really sure which one because she was sharing the screen with other better looking and more talented actresses in all of them. Then along comes Van Wilder and suddenly Tara Reid hits center stage. She turns Ryan Reynolds into a star, gets on the cover of Maxim and enters Paris Hilton&#8217;s circle of trust. Great things are now expected out of Tara Reid even though they probably never should have been. This is pretty much a play-by-play account of the Tampa Bay. Of course Tara is just another Hollywood actress with some talent, some looks and serious insecurities. Now that she&#8217;s in the spotlight she completes implodes. She dates Sergei Federov and locks herself in a restaurant bathrooms. She&#8217;s making movies based on video games (Alone in the Dark) or version V of the Crow that only Goth kids who get beat up at school watch now (Crow: Wicked Prayer. The first one was excellent though.) She finally bottomed out with a reality show in which she was drunken wreck, had gained 25 pounds and couldn&#8217;t even hold our attention on the unintentional comedy scale. It had just become a sad case of too much for a marginally talented horse. For a while we tried to tell ourselves that she had a sexy voice and would be great to hang out with, but in the end we ended up tossing her and moving on to something else.<\/p>\n<p>TM:<\/p>\n<p>I think we\u2019ve exhausted everyone\u2019s patience, and really, we aren\u2019t that entertaining or we\u2019d be getting paid for this.  Let\u2019s recap:<\/p>\n<p>Keira Knightley &#8211; A.P. Warrior<br \/>Jessica Biel &#8211; Point Determined<br \/>Rachel McAdams &#8211; Brother Derek<br \/>Jessica Alba &#8211; Lawyer Ron<br \/>Rachel Weisz &#8211; Sweetnorthernsaint<br \/>Kate Beckingsale &#8211; Barbaro<br \/>Piper Perabo &#8211; Jazil<br \/>Scarlett Johannsen &#8211; Discreet Cat<br \/>Jennifer Garner &#8211; Cause to Believe<br \/>Brittney Murphy &#8211; Bob and John<br \/>Denise Richards &#8211; Private Vow<br \/>Elisha Cuthbert &#8211; Sinister Minister<br \/>Tara Reid \u2013 Deputy Glitters<br \/>Katie Holmes \u2013 Keyed Entry<br \/>Jennifer Lopez \u2013 Bluegrass Cat<\/p>\n<p>We still need a Steppenwolfer and a Sharp Humor, but we can save that for another day.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Derby Hype and those Hollywood Hills<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":459,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2221","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2221","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/459"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2221"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2221\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2221"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2221"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2221"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}