Everyone wants a grade winner, and I am no exception.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Trying to figure out how this game actually works is something no one knows except the creator.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I, by trade, am an actuary.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>What that means is that I work with the insurance industry in calculating probabilities (such as the probability an 18 year old male willhave an accident).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Based on my computations, insurance rates are determined.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In essence, I\u2019m a statistician.\u00a0 <\/SPAN> I\u2019ve been spending a number of months, probably close to a year in what one could call \u201ctheories\u201d as to how you can breed a grade winner.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I have finally made a break through with 92% accuracy using probability curvatures.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Simply put, there is a 94% chance (based on tested results of using the discovered formula) that this is the methodology that determines the abilities of a newly bred horse. One would ask \u201cwhy are you sharing this with everyone?\u201d\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I could keep it to myself and vastly improve my chances of having grade winners.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>To tell you the truth, I have already bred a series of horses that will soon be hitting the raceway with a vastly better than normal probability of having a grade winner.\u00a0 <\/SPAN> First, I have to explain that it is not a guarantee that you will breed a horse that will be a grade winner.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>There are a number of random variable computations in the game that with the \u201cwrong roll of the dice\u201d will produce a horse that underperforms.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>But understanding the undertoes of the game and how the system puts together a variety of components as well as \u201cthe discovery\u201d will double, triple or quadruple your opportunity to have that desired prize horse. \u201cThe discovery\u201d is something very simplistic that I came across and it was by pure chance that I even looked at it, yet it is a major factor but only works to optimum probability when the other components are properly understood. BREEDING SELECTION You want a top notch rated\u00a0 <\/SPAN>horse in the breeding line.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I have determined that the weight of the Sire, Dam Sire and Dam-Dam Sire are randomly determined by the games operating system.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In most cases, the Sire has the greatest weight, but not in all cases.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Thus, having a top notch rated horse in the breeding line definitely increases your potential of having that golden star. What I call the BW, meaning Breeding Weight, is the first computation.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Based on sampling close to 2400 horses in the game, I have determined that 93% of horses bred will have their Breeding Weight from the following formula: Sires\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>30-60% Dam Sire \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/SPAN>25-40%\u00a0 <\/SPAN> Dam-Dam Sire\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>10-30% It is totally possible that a horses BW will be outside the above ranges, but that only happens in about 7% of cases, kind of the exception to the rule. How does the BW work\u2026For example, if you have AP Indy as the sire, and the system draws a BW of 60 for the horse that is being produced, 60% of its ability will be drawn in from AP Indy, a very good chance of a superstar.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>But a 30 as BW isn\u2019t bad for AP Indy, however, this signifies that the dam sire (DS) and dam-dam sire (DSS) will contribute 70% of its ability, so you better have some good back-end blood in there.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN> Next is what I call a power ranking (PR).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The power ranking gives horses a better chance of drawing a higher BW number for each category (sire, DS, DSS).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>It\u2019s basic function is to define the better horses from the worse ones, thus educating the Sim-Computer system.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>These rankings are defined by the programmer and can be changed.\u00a0 <\/SPAN> The PR is a range from 1 to 10.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Horses with a PR of 10 have ten times as much chance of drawing a high BW than a horse with the one.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>As expected, the powerhouse horses do get the higher numbers.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Below gives you a pretty good guidance as to some of these ratings and there may be a few surprises.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>\u00a0<\/SPAN>I\u2019ve tried to include the more common names that are used within the game for breeding. 10-AP Indy, Bernardini, Sadler\u2019s Wells, Gone West, Giant Causeway, Cape Cross 9-Storm Cat, Danzig, Dynaformer, Dehere, Unbridled, Forty Niner 8-Seeking the Gold, Sea The Stars, Unbridled\u2019s\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Song, Awesome Again 7-Deep Impact, Pulpit, Galileo, Montjeu, Distorted Humor, Kingmambo 6-Monsun, Tapit, Curlin, North Light, Oasis Dream, Candy Ride 5- Empire Maker, Big Brown, Rahy, El Prado, Rainbow Quest, Easy Goer 4- Danehill Dancer, Empire Maker, Scat Daddy, Vindication, Street Cry 3-Smarty Jones, Point Given, King of Kings, Swain, Elvstroem 2- Fastnet Rock, First Samuai, Eddington, Holy Bull, Berstein 1-Heatseeker, Unusual Heat, Falbrav, El Gran Senor, Plesant Tap After the BW and PR numbers run through their distributions and permutations (various statistical formulations) the horse is produced. INJURIES, GAUGES, USAGE and OPTIMAL DISTANCE In my analysis, I have computed that on any given race date, 1% of horses will be injured.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>A random number is assigned to a horse ranging from 0 to 100, this is the Injury number.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Before a race is run, a random number is drawn.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If it matches the injury number to a horse in the race, it will be identified as injured.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>It is possible that more than one horse in a race will have the same injury number.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In sampling, I have only seen a maximum of two horses come out of a race injured.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This is guesture on my part, I am estimating that the system will not allow more than two horses to be injured in a race and the two with the lowest post positions are the ones that are impacted. I have also identified other computations that factor into a horses ability.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In large, they do not have an overwhelming effect on the horse becoming a grade winner.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Each horse has a Gauge.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The Gauge is a range from 1 to 25 with peak ability coming at 25, which rarely happens.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>\u00a0\u00a0<\/SPAN>This is the wear & tear that a horse takes when racing on the track.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Each horse has a Gauge which you could say is a \u201cwear and tear\u201d number. \u00a0<\/SPAN>If a horse is in a race with a guage of 20, and the conditions are soft (easy competition), and the horse wins with ease, the gauge would move up to 25, a peak point.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>However, if the horse is used hard in the race, the guage may drop down to 10.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Horse can recover by simply resting them for a duration.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The gauge will also be impacted as a horse ages, more so after they turn 6 and not as notably at younger ages. If your BW and PR numbers are high, and you breed that top runner, you will want to determine the Usage number.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The Usage number is relatively easy to determine and also changes over the life of a horse.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Usage directly reflects the rest interval. Usage is a number that is based on age as follows: 2 Year Olds\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>5 to 8 weeks 3 Year Olds\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>3 to 6 weeks 4 \u2013 7 Year Olds\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>3 to 5 weeks 8 \u2013 10 Year Olds\u00a0 <\/SPAN>3 to 7 weeks Over 11\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>4 to 9 weeks These ranges have been verified to be 96% accurate.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>There are some horse that will fall outside these ranges, but are the exception and harder to spot. The Usage parallels real life in that a 2-year old needs more rest as they develop and train.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>When the horse turns 3, the rating will change as it has matured and developed skills. \u00a0<\/SPAN>Through racing and experimenting with the rest breaks between starts, you can determine the ultimate rest period for peak performance and gain an advantage over your foes.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The Usage and Gauge numbers work together in the horses racing abilities with each start. Finally the Optimal Distance.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This is actually a quartile which is determined at the \u201cbirth\u201d of the horse, but does not actually come into play until the horse is a 3-year old.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This is because the long-range distances are not available to 2-year olds.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The quartile has a low and high range which is the number of furlongs a horse will be at optimal performance.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The range is wide from 4.5 to 16 which correlates to the number of furlongs a race can be.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>\u00a0<\/SPAN>There is also a \u201cspread\u201d which is the minimum and maximum Optimal Distance a horse likes to run.