{"id":10382,"date":"2012-07-27T23:43:44","date_gmt":"2012-07-27T23:43:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=10382"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=10382","title":{"rendered":"Equinics 2012- The Churchill Downs"},"content":{"rendered":"

EQUINICS 2012<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

THE CHURCHILL DOWNS<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

2 YO COLTS, 6F DIRT<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

For Precocious Group of Colts, the Future is Now<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

It is perhaps more than fitting that one of the Juvenile races on this season\u2019s Equinics card is given the name \u201cTheChurchill Downs.\u201d<\/i> Fitting in the sense that even though this race is run at the classic sprint distance of six furlongs, all in here have an eye trained on another \u201cClassic\u201d race, one that\u2019s run at the testing Classic distance of a mile and a quarter some nine plus months from now.<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

A precocious sprinter who can eventually stretch out- and be effective at it- is a rare commodity indeed. Realistically, it\u2019s not particularly fair to expect a two year old with blazing speed and great success in sprint ranks to ever turn into a Classic distance horse as he or she ages. Sure, you\u2019ll find the winner o fjuvenile graded stakes races who becomes a stellar miler (but go back to last year\u2019s BB article on the Dirt Mile- does anyone really <\/i>set up on a Sunday evening and think, \u201chmm, I want a miler!), but the superb two year old sprinter who becomes a top notch Classic horse at three is a rarity. It\u2019s not a stretch to say it\u2019s perhaps the rarest horse in the entire game.<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

How rare, you ask? Well, we went to work and dug deep into the Sim\u2019s ever lengthening History Book (otherwise known as \u201cTheBook Mike Wallace Wrote\u201d) <\/i>and turned up some interesting stuff. Well, sort of interesting. In the sense that if you\u2019re one of the many who have a serious case of Bluegrass Derby fever, you may want to\u2026..scratch from this here race? <\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

Well, yeah. Scratch. If you want to win the Bluegrass Derby, get the hell out of this race as fast as you can run six furlongs. Faster, maybe. Why? Well, if you win the Churchill Downs on Saturday, which in and of itself is a tremendous feat, it\u2019s pretty safe to say you won\u2019t be in the winner\u2019s circle come the first Saturday of May in Race 15 in the Bluegrass State. Sorry, Charlie. Just ain\u2019t gonna happen.<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

We dug deep into the history of Bluegrass Derby winners, and what did we find? Perhaps it should have been a trivia question Squirrel used in the Equinics Contest thread on the main MB.<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cHow many winners of an Equinics Juvenile Sprint Stakes race have gone on to capture the Bluegrass Derby?\u201d<\/o:p><\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Uhhh\u2026.how about ZERO? You are CORRECT, GOOD SIR!<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

Better yet,\u00a0 how many Derby winners ever won a Graded sprint stakes at two?<\/o:p><\/i><\/span><\/p>\n

That\u2019s right, Alex! ZERO.<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

Here\u2019s the real stunner: how many Derby winners have won a LISTED sprint stakes at two?<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

Two. That\u2019s it. Tower Storm and Anticosti. Both at 6.5 furlongs. One time each. Over and out.<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

Surprised? You probably shouldn\u2019t be. As we stated before, rare indeed is the precocious two year old sprinter who ever stretches out successfully. What we\u2019ve got here are some seriously talented colts who are precocious, brilliantly fast, and headed to Sim glory, one in this race, many in this race in other sprints down the long winding road. It\u2019s not a bad thing. The sprint divisions are probably the toughest of any division in the game. It\u2019s tough to get a good one, one who wins repeatedly, and one who can decisively dominate his opponents. The list of superlative sprinters is short. Take a glance at the Hall of Fame. You\u2019ll find sprinters scattered here and there, but they\u2019re outnumbered badly by Classic distance horses. Not because there aren\u2019t any great sprinters, but just because it\u2019s awfully hard to consistently win at shorter distances. A sprint is a mad dash straight into never never land. One bad step, you\u2019re finished. Wide trip, you\u2019re cooked. Dwell at the start, may as well just pull up and get it over with. There\u2019s just not enough time to make up a misstep, not enough distance to overcome a stumble, not enough room to get out of a bad spot. It is, quite simply, brutal. The best horse loses a sprint more often than he or she wins it.<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

What will happen Saturday is that a Champion is crowned. Not a Bluegrass Derby winner ,but a Champion nonetheless. Don\u2019t look for today\u2019s winners or losers here in the Bluegrass Derby, but you\u2019ll be sure to find them in a plethora of big sprint races down the road, and you\u2019ll almost certainly see a number of them in the Breeder\u2019s Bowl sprint or middle distance races. Rest assured that the winner of this race has every reason to celebrate a unique accomplishment, and be equally assured that the last words you\u2019ll hear out of the winning trainer\u2019s mouth is \u201cdamn, I just lost the Bluegrass Derby.\u201d\u00a0 Why? Simple. For these colts, the future isn\u2019t nine months away. For them, the Future is Now.<\/i> They\u2019ve blossomed early, they\u2019ve shown great precocity, as well as blitzkrieg style speed. They\u2019ve earned their shot at this, a rare prize that only comes along for two year olds every once every four years. That in itself makes this a very, very special kind of race.<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

At this time of year, juveniles are pretty short on form. Consistency isn\u2019t a virtue, it\u2019s the quality they\u2019re all searching for. Some in here have been nothing short of brilliant thus far; others have shown great potential. A few have yet to show what they\u2019re really made of. It\u2019s the time of year when young horses really start to strut their stuff; the speed figures rise exponentially. So, while we can try to deduct who\u2019s going to figure in this race, as with almost all spring and summer two year old races, this one is going to be a real crapshoot. One thing is as close to a nut lock cinch as you\u2019ll ever see in a race- this field is absolutely loaded with early speed. At least half the field wants the lead, or wants to be very close to it. With what figures to be a blistering pace, from a punter\u2019s angle, we\u2019re going to look for a closer to take home Equinics Gold.<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

Since a good deal of this preview has been done prior to posts being drawn, we\u2019ll run through the horses in the order of entry on the Pastures Equinics race page.<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Representing the host residency Vermont is SIMBESTO (More Than Ready-Danzig). Winner of two of his three starts thus far, this one is a certified closer. His lone loss came in the G2 Vermont BB Juvenile last out, where his desperate late charge barely missed by a half length with an 85 figure. He made up six lengths in the lane, and with the fast expected pace, keep an eye out for a streaking bullet wearing the Vermont colors in the lane.<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n

EWC sendsout COWTOWN TRICK (Cowtown Cat-Phone Trick). e <\/span><\/span>\u00a0\u00a0He captured the Vermont BB Juvenile in front running fashion with an 86 fig, and may just toss a wrench in our \u201cfind a closer\u201d handicapping angle. He led at every call in that race, but showed an enormous amount of guts. He was pressed the entire way, never leading by more than \u00bd length, and still managed to repel the thunderous late run of Simbesto. Since switching to dirt, he\u2019s a perfect three for three, and a look at his PP\u2019s is a study of perfection; in all his dirt efforts, every one of the twelve calls shows a \u201c1\u201d. He wants the lead, and the big question has to be, what happens if he doesn\u2019t get it? We\u2019ll soon find out.<\/p>\n

TRAPPE CADET (Trappe Shot-Awesome Again) is the entrant from relatively new residency ESR. If I\u2019m not mistaken, this is their first, perhaps their second Equinics. Not much form to look at here, as he\u2019s only run twice, breaking his maiden in his second try with a 79 over a sloppy track. Both his races have been in off going, so he\u2019s a candidate to jump way up on a fast surface. He\u2019s another that wants the lead, or be close to it. If he\u2019s strictly a mudder, he\u2019s cooked here. If he prefers a fast surface, he may just make the very difficult jump from maiden to Graded stakes winner Saturday.<\/p>\n

The funny crew at Comedy Central have chosen TWINGE (Unbridled\u2019s Song-Mr. Prospector) as their representative here. He has only one race under his belt, but he made it a good one, coming from well off the pace to air by two lengths as the 3-2 favorite. Another trying to make the jump from MSW to graded stakes winner, he should be helped by the expected \u00a0fast pace, and it\u2019s worth noting that his pedigree is rife with speed, speed and more speed. DDS Seattle Slew wasn\u2019t one anyone would ever confuse with a \u201cslow starter\u201d type. Could be any sort.<\/p>\n

Defending Equinics champions GR Simsters will enter EVILTOWN (Speightown-Pivotal). Another who has but one race to his credit, he too made it a winning one, scoring in a New York MSW with a 76. He pressured the early speed that day, made a strong move willingly around the turn and held gamely throughout the lane to score by a \u00bd length. He\u2019s going to have to step it up to stay close Saturday. GRS is unusually quiet leading up to this Equinics-usually, the bluster coming from the GR camp is deafening. Are they playing it coy, or do they sense some trouble in trying to put a hammerlock on Equinics titles? Time will tell\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n

Minnesota Downs will run LEFT SIDE STRONG (StreetBoss-Awesome Again). Winner of two of his four starts thus far, he\u2019s already stakes tested. He won a listed stakes at 6.5 panels, leading every step of the way. Best efforts have come when he\u2019s up front, or very close to it. He\u2019s already graded placed in the G3 Television Stakes, where he was run down late.Another who tried the Vermont BB Juvenile, he ran his best race to date there with an 83, but was out of the money the first and only time he got shuffled back a bit more than in his first three starts. That has to be a bit of a concern for the boys from up North, but he\u2019s got more back class than a lot of others in here.<\/p>\n

Wow. City-Race Rhein-Main Turf Club (how\u2019s that for a name?) will be represented by EURO SMILE (Any Given Saturday-Cape Canaveral). For a\u201cTurf Club,\u201d somebody over there bred a pretty damn heavy dirt pedigree with this guy. Winner of three of his four starts, he\u2019s already a listed stakes winner. Looks to have been pointed to this spot for some time, as following the solid stakes win, he dropped back to allowance company, and he responded brilliantly with a career best effort, running off and hiding with an 85. Doesn\u2019t look like that took much out of him, as he turned for home with a four length lead after powering through a half in 45 and change, and was never asked for his best while cruising home effortlessly. His PP\u2019s are stacked with speed-he shows nothing but \u201c1\u201d except for the last call of his first start, where he weakened late to finish fourth. Looks like he\u2019s got some solid conditioning under his belt now, and that appears to be behind him. Another who will add to the go for broke early battle we expect to see Saturday.<\/p>\n

Hispano Parlante has our first undefeated entrant with EL PATO DONALD ( Medaglia d\u2019Oro-Gone West). A perfect three for three thus far, he\u2019s yet another type with a ton of early hoof, never showing anything but \u201c1\u201d in his PP\u2019s. He\u2019s been brought along slowly and deliberately, improving with each start, as he\u2019s worked through Alw NW2x conditions already. His last effort was excellent, as he toyed with his opposition, opening up a nearly five length lead turning for home, before simply cantering under the wire with an 85. Oops, the spacing just messed up, might be time to save what I\u2019ve got so far. LOL. Anyways, big Donald is going to be a force, especially if he breaks on top. This one has a tremendous future in front of him.<\/p>\n

Testbarn will counter with EXCELLENT OUT WEST (Excellent Art- Mt. Livermore). Two for four in his career, he\u2019s regressed sharply when moving to stakes ranks. After capturing his first two starts with ease, and landing on the \u201cTop Two Year Old Speeds of the Week\u201d list after firing an 80 in a late March allowance, he has yet to duplicate that race. He\u2019s been closing is his two graded stakes efforts, but hasn\u2019t been able to catch the front runners, or match strides with the other closers. The fast pace should help him, but of all those I\u2019ve looked at thus far, Excellent Out West is one who really looks to be crying out for more distance. Anything can happen, but\u2026\u2026<\/p>\n

Blazing Saddles has been mentioned by many as one of the favorites for the Equinics this year, and their representative in this race, CURFEW BUSTER (Afleet Alex-Pulpit) does nothing to diminish those high expectations. A perfect three for three thus far, CurfewBuster has been busting his opponents chops by lulling them to sleep early and then landing a late haymaker. In each of his races, he\u2019s lagged one position from dead last. In each of his races, he\u2019s unleashed a charge that nobody could fight off, and he\u2019s shown an uncanny knack for knowing where the finish line is, winning both his stakes races by identical \u00bc length margins. LTO, he fired off an 86, closing from over eight lengths out halfway home at 6.5 furlongs. You don\u2019t see many two year olds who can make up that much ground late, but he\u2019s done it three times in a row now, closing from more than seven lengths off the pace in each of his races. That\u2019s damn impressive, and if he handles the1\/16th<\/sup> of a mile cutdown in distance, he\u2019s going to be a handful late while laying down a vapor trail. In with a huge shot to get Blazing Saddles off to a fast closing start this weekend. His worst <\/i>career effort was an 82 fig. Woof. This guy might be very special indeed.<\/p>\n

SPIN IT UP (MajesticWarrior-Zafonic) will run for the NWRC. He\u2019s a bit of an oddball in here. He doesn\u2019t like to be up front, and he doesn\u2019t come from the clouds. He should tuck in nicely behind the early speed. Whether or not that benefits him is yet to be seen; he\u2019s won one of his two starts, and failed to run down his comrades in an NW2L alw last time out. Top fig of 79, he\u2019s going to have to jump up big to figure in this field.<\/p>\n

The maker of all those great tools, YOSS will run BARGORY (Super Saver-Seeking the Gold). He\u2019s taken the strange road here, starting his career in allowance company, where he finished off the board. He scored nicely in his next race, a more mundane MSW. He followed that with a big run in his return to allowance company, coming from off the pace to win by a \u00bc length with a sharp 85 figure. That\u2019s a big jump from his career best of 67 to that point. If he can move up off that just a bit, he\u2019ll be right there. If that race was the proverbial freak job, he\u2019s going to be backpedalling fast in the lane. <\/p>\n

CARDRONA (Speightstown-DistortedHumor) is yet another with a perfect record, this one two for two. He\u2019s also another who wants the lead, and has never seen the rear end of another pony.\u00a0 The Queensland hopeful fired an 81 LTO, winning easily by a measured two lengths. Nobody was really gaining on him late, so you have to think there might be more in the tank. He\u2019ll need that, as he\u2019s going to have a lot of company up front. As previously mentioned, only one of these front runners will have the lead Saturday, so all the others will be forced to adapt. Will he do that better than the rest? <\/p>\n

URC will send out PAINT BOMB (Speightstown-More Than Ready), the third horse in here sired by Speightstown. This one comes in off a nice stakes win, running a career best 82, in which he showed for the first time front running tactics. In his previous races, he laid close to the pace before moving late. Going back to that style may suit him better here, instead of getting embroiled in what will certainly be a ridiculous early duel up front.\u00a0 His versatility should suit him well here.<\/p>\n

The geezers at Del Penn will run WEST SIDE HIGHWAY (Bernardini-Seeking the Gold). While Bernardini isn\u2019t one who figures to toss sprinters, he\u2019s got a nice one here. Owner of the top speed number in the field (88), he\u2019s two for three thus far. Surprisingly, the 88 got him beat- he managed only a third in his last race, the G3 Manor of Bashford, where he faded a bit in the lane.\u00a0 Yet another who likes to lay close to the pace, but doesn\u2019t need the lead. I\u2019d like him a lot more if his last race wasn\u2019t a mere three weeks ago. He\u2019s far and away the least rested horse in this field, and it will be asking an awful lot to fire a new career top off such short rest.<\/p>\n

STAY IN ORBIT (DistortedHumor-Street Cry) will run for MIDAS, and he\u2019s got the look of a serious contender. With that pedigree, you\u2019d expect him to want longer distances, and in his last race, his first at six furlongs, he really exploded. He closed from eight lengths out to take the G2 High Roller\u2019s Juvenile, powering past almost the entire field in the final 3\/8ths of a mile. Prior to that, he just\u00a0 missed in the G3 Television Stakes, where he looked like the best horse in the field, closing like an express train and just running out of ground at the end. He\u2019s well rested, and should be able to take advantage of the hot pace. In with a big, big shot.<\/p>\n

The Kentucky Horsemen will send out the lone NY bred in the field, BOY OH BOY (Dublin-Awesome Again). He just missed in his debut, then made amends in his next race. His last one was a much improved performance, where he easily took an allowance race with an 81 at 6.5 furlongs. He\u2019s improved with lengthening distances, so I\u2019m not so sure cutting back is the right tonic for him. He prefers to be up front, but has shown he doesn\u2019t have to have the lead, which will be to his advantage in this speed laden contest.<\/p>\n

Rounding out the field is Saltaire\u2019s SALTAIRE DART (Sea Dart-Stravinsky). Have to wonder how much longer before this fellow gets a shot on the green stuff. He\u2019s really not done enough to merit consideration in here, with a top fig of 67 and his lone win in three trips to the gate coming in a local bred race. But these are two year olds, so you just never know\u2026.<\/p>\n

So, that\u2019s it for this race. The opening ceremonies are underway, and the horses are getting a good night\u2019s res tprior to the big day. We\u2019re not going to make any predictions, but I really like a couple of the closers in here,\u00a0particularly STAY IN ORBIT and CURFEW BUSTER. Good luck to all, and enjoy the 2012 Summer Equinics!<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fast pace expected in Juvenile battle<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10382","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10382","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/41"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10382"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10382\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10382"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10382"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10382"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}