Ellerslie<\/p>\n
Grade 1
10f
Fast Dirt
$1,000,000
Fillies and mares, 3 years old<\/p>\n
Welcome to sunny Vermont for a great card of racing, here I cover the 2nd of 16 races. There are a handful of chances in this race but none compare to the champion FINAL EXIT who is deserved favourite for this race and could win her 5th G1. But she is without rivals as LIGEIA , MYLIFEDEPENDSONIT and COUNTRY COMFORT are sure to make this one hell of a race. Now to look at the rundown of the field and my opinions.<\/p>\n
( 1 ) FLEETWOOD FLEURY(KY) – Jeter \u2013 Northwest Racing Circuit
Ranking: #26
Highest SP: 100 – Highest SP 10f: NA
Form: 8-0-9-1-2
Jockey: O. Osbourne 24.9% – Odds: 12\/1
Biggest Run: 2nd G1 California Oaks (8.5f)<\/p>\n
Fleetwood Fleury is by Any Given Saturday, out of the \u201cB\u201d grade mare Fleetwood Mia. Fleetwood Fleury\u2019s full brother is a graded performer at 10f, which bodes well for her first try at that distance. Fleetwood Fleury has been very inconsistent up to this point. At first look routing may not be her thing especially when her mom was a G1 winner sprinting. Fleetwood Fleury started of her 3yo campaign with a win at 8.5f in Stakes Company. Her next run in the G1 California oaks was by far the best of her career, although she was 2nd by more than 2 \u00bc lengths there was no less than 12 Graded winners or performers in the race. Her next 2 runs did not live up to expectation as she was heavily beaten both in G1 tries. Her last race leading into this race was the 8f Chestnut Stakes where she did make some ground up late but was losing positions by the end. She has raced against top class for a long time and will certainly lack no experience come race day. Biggest Question mark over her is distance and the fact that 10f will test her to the extreme.
Verdict: 10f looks way too far, More than likely will finish back in midfield.<\/p>\n
( 2 ) DISCREET MADONNA(KY) – Doral \u2013 DelPenn NationalClub
Ranking: #NR
Highest SP: 103 – Highest SP 10f: NA
Form: 1-4-1-2-3
Jockey: D. Fendlay Jr 18.1% – Odds: 29\/1
Biggest Run: 1st A-46200NW3L (6.5f)<\/p>\n
Discreet Madonna is by discreetly mine, out of the mare Kool Kue Baby. Discreet Madonna is the very first baby for Kool Kue Baby. All 3 of Kool Kue Baby\u2019s wins came in turf routes, and that is where 8 of 9 of Discreet Madonna\u2019s runs have come. Discreet Madonna comes in to this race as a massive unknown quantity seeing her only dirt run was a win at 6.5f producing an eye catching 103. The step up could be well and truly above this filly\u2019s level, and being by discreetly mine does not help her cause in trying to get 10f. That sole run on dirt at 6.5f after a 3 months break was outstanding so her upside is scary good. If she can get 10f she will be in the mix.
Verdict: Can\u2019t see her winning, will more than likely finish in the 7-12 range.<\/p>\n
( 3 ) LIGEIA(KY) – Fernando \u2013 Universal Racing Club
Ranking: #20
Highest SP: 109 – Highest SP 10f: 109
Form: 1-1-9-4-2
Jockey: R. Whisper 25.9% – Odds: 6\/1
Biggest Run: 1st G2 The Alemania Special (10f)<\/p>\n
Ligeia is by Big Brown, out of the \u201cH\u201d grade mare Berenice. Berenice has produced a number of nice route runners but yet again Ligeia may be the best of her progeny so far. Ligeia is the only graded winner by Big Browns 2011 crop. Ligeia is a very lightly raced filly with this being only her 10th run of her career, Ligeia kicked off her season in the Fame or Fortune stakes over a mile which she won with relative ease, Her next 3 runs were up at graded level where she ran a 2nd, 4th and 9th. She was noticeably going backwards over those 3 runs and a change of some kind was needed to get ligeia back firing. That change came in the URC Oaks over 9f at stakes level, Ligeia changed her running style and was awarded with a scintillating 106 and winning by 3+ lengths against a very crafty field. Last time out over 10f Ligeia showed why she has to be respected, she blitzed a very good field in the G2 Alemania Special winning solidly by 1+ lengths and a career best 109 in the process. 10f holds absolutely no queries for her as she looks her best as the racing has gotten longer.
Verdict: Can this filly handle the step up to G1 level, Yes she is ready to shock the sim world in my opinion.<\/p>\n
( 4 ) VIOLIN RIDGE(JPN) – Gael5 \u2013 Midas
Ranking: #440
Highest SP: 97 – Highest SP 10f: 88
Form: 3-1-5-4-2
Jockey: GD. Mate 24.8% – Odds: 25\/1
Biggest Run: 1st A-26000NW4x (9f)<\/p>\n
Violin Ridge is by Stravinsky, out of the \u201cC\u201d mare Your Ridges. Your ridges has done her best running when she has been in route races but more specifically 10f. Stravinsky the New Zealand based sire has more sprint influence then route. Violin Ridge started her season in early February in the 8f allowance where she finished 3rd\/4, her next 3 starts were just as bad with a 2nd ,4th and 5th all in very small fields finishing going backwards not forwards. That 5th place was over the distance we have here 10f dirt, that raced showed us all why this filly has absolutely no chance today, with only 5 runners in the race she finished last 13 lengths back against other mediocre fillies. The next run for this filly was 9f allowance against a field of 4 where she beat them comfortably to run a career best 94 and win by 2 \u00be lengths. Her last run was much more encouraging but still only finished 3rd of 5, in the process she upped her 94 to a 97.
Verdict: Very tough to like this filly has showed nothing all season and now she faces the toughest field of her career. Will finish closer to last.<\/p>\n
( 5 ) VINDICTA(AUS) – 352 \u2013 Queensland Racecourse
Ranking: #391
Highest SP: 95 – Highest SP 10f: NA
Form: 5-2-1-2-1
Jockey: M. Henson 7.2% – Odds: 31\/1
Biggest Run: 5th ST Alyacademy Academy (9f)<\/p>\n
Vindicta is by Haradasun, out of the \u201cG\u201d grade mare Essence of Vindy. Haradasun is a more successful than first thought, Has 2 graded winners in his 2011 crop. He also produces a big percentage of long routers to the surprise of myself. Vindicta has had a very up and down year, with more downs then ups. Vindicta broke her maiden over 7f in early February. That was her first ever run on dirt with her whole 2yo campaign being on turf, what a great switch that was. Unfortunately Vindicta has not stamped herself at all this season as an elite horse and has struggled in allowance races, Which this here will be a huge step up to compete against the very best of the division. Her last run was the 9f stakes race where she ran prominent all race but finished off mid pack when the heat was turned on.
Verdict: I find this one well out of her depth and will struggle to finish within 15L of the winner.<\/p>\n
( 6 ) SPIELUHR(GER) – Tripwire \u2013 GR Simsters
Ranking: #97
Highest SP: 100 – Highest SP 10f: 100
Form: 5-1-2-1-1
Jockey: D. Givins 22.5% – Odds: 19\/1
Biggest Run: 1st ST Jack Razing (10.5f)<\/p>\n
Spieluhr is by Monsun, out of the superb \u201cB\u201d He-mare Light tripper. Light Tripper was an outstanding Horse and his exceptional racing always came at 10f. He is a beautifully bred retired Colt. This is no surprise as Mr Dan Givens has the most amazing list of retired mares. Spieluhr started off her 3yo season in an 8f MSW race in which she won handily by 3Lengths. Her next 2 runs in 9f and 9.5f races also were won in a canter against small fields and returning sp\u2019s of 80 and 76 respectively. Her next run was her first step up to listed level where she ran a gallant 2nd and boosted her sp\u2019s by 23 points to 99.Her next run was her best of her career so far running in the 10.5 stakes race where she won very easily had a 6 lengths lead when turning for home, she coasted home to win with consummate ease. Last time out would have been a massive concern to connections as she was beaten handily by 2 of the horses in this field, In which she now has to find 9 lengths to get back on level ground with Legeia and Country Comfort. Would be a massive raise to prominence if she wins here as she was racing in a maiden 6 months ago.
Verdict: Very unlikely winner here, Bottom half finish for this one in my Opinion.<\/p>\n
( 7 ) VENCLOVA(KY) – Vineland \u2013 City-Race Rhein-Main Turf Club
Ranking: #562
Highest SP: 95 – Highest SP 10f: 95
Form: 6-4-4-1-1
Jockey: O A. Haack 24.2% – Odds: 26\/1
Biggest Run: 1st A-30400NW2L (8f)<\/p>\n
Venclova is By Tapit, Out of the \u201cC\u201d mare Virilio. Virilio had a lot of success when she was racing over 10f and beyond, Virilio to this point has only produced 1 stakes winner from her crop of Progeny. Tapit a blueblood sire from Kentucky has produced a number of graded performers in the sim, however his 2011 crop has only 3 Graded Winners. Venclova started her season in a maiden in which she won in a big field with a sp of 85. Venclova\u2019s wet track form is first class with her best run coming in her first race after that maiden win, she won by 3 \u00be in soft ground with a sizzling 94 over 8f, she repeated that performance with a victory over 9f in a very good performance to win in wet ground again and post another 94. after that on fast ground she just could not get going putting in 2 pretty ugly runs, a last over 8f then midfield over 10f. last time out was her first step up at Graded Level where she was beaten quite comfortably by 10L over the same distance as today 10f. If we got wet ground she would be a massive Dark Horse for this race, seeing its fast she has very little chance to pull of the upset.
Verdict: Will finish in the 12-16 range.<\/p>\n
( 8 ) PENDLES(KY) – Montjeu \u2013 Saltire Racing
Ranking: #NR
Highest SP: 80 – Highest SP 10f: NA
Form: 4-8-2-1
Jockey: M. Brownlow 8.6% – Odds: 99\/1
Biggest Run: 2nd A-46200NW1x (5.5f)<\/p>\n
Pendles is a scratch bred filly by Curlin. Curlin\u2019s 2011 crop has 3 graded winners and over $7,000,000 in earnings. Pendles started off his season in a 25k claimer where he was ultimately claimed by montjeu. He has looked much better on turf as a sprinter up until this point. Pendles is just completely out of his element here and will struggle to compete. Can\u2019t win and should not be in this class of race.
Verdict: Will finish last.<\/p>\n
( 9 ) ANYROSEWILLDO(KY) – Italst9 \u2013 Empire State Racing
Ranking: #NR
Highest SP: 97 – Highest SP 10f: NA
Form: 3-4-5-1-1
Jockey: V. Gardner 20.8% – Odds: 26\/1
Biggest Run: 4th A-46200NW4x (8.5f)<\/p>\n
Anyrosewilldo is a beautiful name for this Scratch Bred filly by Any Given Saturday. Speaking to frank about this filly he had this to say \u201cAnyRose is sacrificial lamb and out of her league but there to represent ESR\u201d after those comments I have to agree. The one plus this filly has is she is lightly raced compared to the others, Also has been rolling home really well when the trip has gotten beyond the mile. Outclassed and Overmatched always spells danger, however frank is one of the best trainers in the sim at the moment and to write off one of his always spells danger.
Verdict: I think top half is the best this can achieve. However will more than likely finish in the 12-16 range.<\/p>\n
( 10 ) MYLIFEDEPENDSONIT(AUS) – Aussloth \u2013 East-West Connection
Ranking: #445
Highest SP: 103 – Highest SP 10f: NA
Form: 1-3-1-6-2
Jockey: W. McClendon 21.8% – Odds: 6\/1
Biggest Run: 1st G1 Japanese Oaks (12f)<\/p>\n
Mylifedependsonit is a Scratch bred filly by the aussie sire Encosta De Lago. This filly is the exceptional starlet over 12f on the turf and now tries to bring her best to 10f dirt. Her pedigree suggests that the switch to dirt should be no problem, Kris s x AP Indy on the backend is an outstanding pedigree for a dirt runner. This super filly has already won a G3 and a G1 plus has earned over a $1,000,000 in her short career. Mylifedependsonit has already run 8 times this season but this will be her first run for 9 weeks. She started off her spectacular 3yo campaign in the 9.5f turf allowance where she treated the field with absolute contempt and ran away with a 4L win. Her next 2 runs were very good with her normal electric turn of foot coming to the fore in both her runs the First in a 7f allowance where she won pretty well the second in the 8f turf stakes where she made up massive ground late to run 2nd was a prelude to her exceptional form to come later at 12f. Next out was her sole run on the dirt for this campaign and it came at 7f where she lost by only \u00bc of a length and ran an outstanding 98 in a 4 horse field. Next race was a very disappointing 6th in her first graded try so the connections decided to test her again in the G3 Penelope Cruz over 10.5f on heavy turf in which she blew away her competition to win by 3 3\/4 lengths. Another ITM performance in the G1 Sydney Oaks, then came her best run of her career the G1 Japanese Oaks at 12f, Again running away from the field with a 3 \u00be length win and a eye catching 103 to boot. 9 weeks since last run is a huge concern and this may be a little too tough to make that comeback in.
Verdict: Has a lot of questions to answer, If she brigs her best form she is the biggest threat to Final Exit.<\/p>\n
( 11 ) BUILDING AN EMPIRE(JPN) – Helenus \u2013 Comedy Central
Ranking: #132
Highest SP: 97 – Highest SP 10f: 90
Form: 1-9-1-3-4
Jockey: A. Rolling 25.3% – Odds: 26\/1
Biggest Run: 1st ST Alyacademy Academy (9f)<\/p>\n
Building An Empire is by Empire Maker, out of the \u201cG\u201d He-mare Crown Achieved. Empire Maker has 2 Graded winners from his 2011 crop, Empire maker notably stamps 75% his progeny as routers. So this stands well for this Empire Maker Filly. Building an Empire started her season off in mediocre fashion with 2nd, 3rd and 4th all at allowance level. In those 3 runs she did have the ability to make up ground late and always finished her races off very well. Her next run was where she was given much more ground in her furthest race of her career to date a 9.5f allowance, She ran a career best to date of 92, which she won by 2 \u00bd lengths going away from the field. Her next race was the step up to G2 level in the Smoking Nash where she was handsomely beaten , That could have been down to 2 things the first being it was her first run back in 11 weeks, the other could have been the class step up was too much for her from allowance level, both legitimate excuses on that failure. Last time out in the Alyacademy Academy was her best run of her career to date where she ran a career best 100 sp and won coming from the heavens in making up a 6 lengths to win by \u00bd length.
Verdict: In my opinion this filly has a ton of upside and could produce a very good run at the trip, Time will tell.<\/p>\n
( 12 ) MISS UNDERSTANDING(KY) – Bsben6 \u2013 Blazing Saddles
Ranking: #142
Highest SP: 102 – Highest SP 10f: NA
Form: 4-1-2-7
Jockey: F. Gossett – Odds: 14\/1
Biggest Run: 4th G1 Sister Hen Stakes (9f)<\/p>\n
Miss Understanding is by Tale Of The Cat, out of the \u201cF\u201d grade mare Miss Taken. Miss Understanding has a very unique pedigree for a Dirt Router, With Tale Of The Cat having a huge speed influence in the sim. Miss Taken has not produced the best so far with Miss Understanding being the best of her progeny by a fairway. Miss Understanding certainly gets the route genes by her mom in which she was best when routing. This filly started off her 3yo season in the G3 The Old Cap where she finished 7th\/8 and was a long way from figuring ITM, she did make up a little bit of ground late. Her Next run was where she showed she would be better routing than sprinting with a spectacular late finish to just miss out on the 8.5f allowance race, Finishing with a great 2nd. Her next run was in a small field at 9f where she absolutely smashed her 3 other rivals won by 3 \u00bd lengths going away, showing she was legitimate router in the process with an outstanding sp of 101. Four weeks Later this filly found herself in the biggest race of her career to date the G1 sister Hen where the who\u2019s who of dirt routers showed up, she finished a superb 4th making ground on the rest of the field. Although she was inevitably beaten by Final Exit to the tune of 6 \u00bc lengths. Ben Gowans told me \u201c I think she has a shot, If a few of the big guns don\u2019t come with their \u201cA\u201d game\u201d.
Verdict: I have to agree at this point an outside chance but could upset if a few don\u2019t show up ready to run.<\/p>\n
( 13 ) MAGNUM OF SAMARA(AUS) – Maxattack \u2013 Hispano Parlante
Ranking: #82
Highest SP: 102 – Highest SP 10f: 98
Form: 1-3-3-1-1
Jockey: F. Griffen 10.6% – Odds: 14\/1
Biggest Run: 1st ST The First Ryder (9.5f)<\/p>\n
Magnum Of Samara is a scratch bred filly by Encosta De Lago, Her backend contains Kris s x Buckpasser, Encosta De Lago has 4 Graded winners from his 2011 crop, He also get 50% of his runners on dirt. Encosta De Lago x Kris s is actually very successful cross within the sim, the other 3yo filly with that cross being mylifedependsonit already a G1 winner and has earnings of $1,000,000. Magnum Of Samara kicked of her season with two 9f allowance wins on dirt, with sp\u2019s at 96 and 84. Her next 3 runs were all at stakes level in which this filly had two 3rd\u2019s and a win. That win over 9.5f in her last run was very very good, She ran a career best 102 and gives the trainer some hope she can compete when she takes on the massive step up to G1 level. With all her runs this season being in very small fields this really does disguise how good or average she really is.
Verdict: Tough one to put your finger on, If improves she could figure ITM<\/p>\n
( 14 ) FINAL EXIT (KY) – Dixiedotco – Vermont
Ranking: #1
Highest SP: 110 – Highest SP 10f: NR
Form: 1-1-2-1-1
Jockey: W. Desantis 16.8% – Odds: 5\/2
Biggest Run: 1st G1 Middle Jewel Stakes (9.5f)<\/p>\n
Final Exit is a beautifully bred filly by Dynaformer, out of the stakes and graded producing mare Heavens Gate. Heavens Gate has continually produced quality over the years, however they all fail in comparison to this magical filly. Final Exit has already won 3 G1\u2019s this season and a close up 2nd in another G1. Final Exit started off the year in the G3 Dubai 1000 Guineas where she put every other filly in the division on notice, she stalked the pace and when the whips were cracking found way too much for the others. Her next 3 runs culminated in her winning a G2 a G1 and a close up 2nd in the Bluegrass Oaks. Her next 2 wins were both G1 standard, but her G1 Middle Jewel win against 3yo colts was breathtaking and gave her the reputation of the best classic dirt 3yo in the sim. One big question over Final Exit will be can she do the same damage at 10f. Breeding and form suggests 10f will not be a problem for this filly but you never know to they do it on race day. With a win here she will win her 4th G1 of the season and could have 1 hand on an eclipse Award.
Verdict: The one to beat.<\/p>\n
( 15 ) COUNTRY COMFORTS(KY) – Falcon12 \u2013 Minnesota Downs
Ranking: #12
Highest SP: 108 – Highest SP 10f: 108
Form: 2-6-1-2-1
Jockey: A. Jolly 27.1% – Odds: 9\/2
Biggest Run: 1st G2 Black Middle Flower (9f)<\/p>\n
Country Comfort is a scratch bred filly by Belong To Me. It certainly is a very unique pedigree and one that has been quite successful to this point. Country Comfort has been running quite often to this point, this being her 10th run in 7 months. She started the year in January in a 9.5f stakes race on slick dirt which she did not handle the ground. Her next 3 runs were this filly\u2019s coming out party, with an open lengths stakes win at 9.5f going 106 in late march being her best run of the 3, which gave her a massive introduction to the sim world. Her G3 Chief Snow Handicap against the colts was a spectacular run, Losing in the last stride and running a 107 over the 9f event. But her biggest win of her career was the win in the G2 Black Middle Flower where she virtually wired the field and won going away in a very confident performance. The G1 chestnut stakes was a throw away race as this filly just could not get going and seemed a little on the short side. That 2nd in her last run has given this trainer a lot of optimism stretching out in the G2 Alemania special at 10f on short rest and boosting her sp in the process.
Verdict: If she can find her very best form she will be right in the finish<\/p>\n
( 16 ) KINGOFTHEMALL(KY) – Ratem \u2013 Testbarn
Ranking: #65
Highest SP: 101 – Highest SP 10f: 101
Form: 3-7-1-1-7
Jockey: B. Kneen 7.8% – Odds: 15\/1
Biggest Run: 3rd G2 The Smoking Nash (10f)<\/p>\n
Kingofthemall is by Ghostzapper, out of the \u201cC\u201d Grade mare mambomambomambo. Kingofthemall has a regal turf pedigree on her mom\u2019s side, But has found majority of her success on the dirt, With 3 of her 4 wins being on the dirt. Kingofthemall started her year in the Otto Elusive turf filly route at 9.5f, which she won fairly convincingly. Her next run in the NZ oaks was certainly a forgive race as she found the mile and a half on turf way too far and really faded late on. Her next 2 runs\/wins were both on dirt at 9.5f the latter being a stakes race which she won very easily albeit in a very small field. With those 2 wins under her belt she strangely went back to turf in her toughest run of her career, in which she finished the 10f G1 Saint Larry 8 lengths off the lead. Her next run was the G2 Smoking Nash at 10f, I thought that last run was her best of her career to this point, She changed her running style and was unfortunately the rabbit in a tough race. She will likely improve off that run. Verdict: Could possibly find herself fighting for a spot on the podium here.<\/p>\n
There we have it, an action packed race with a number of possibilities. Good Luck to all runners and connections.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
FINAL EXITgoes for 4th G1 of the season<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":281,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10366","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10366","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/281"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10366"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10366\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10366"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10366"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10366"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}