Dig if you will a picture, of you and I engaged in a horse racing story:
A well-bred horse with a winning streak comes into the Bluegrass State to run for roses, but goes off as the tenth choice despite good form and outstanding connections. He wins convincingly, but not convincingly enough to scare off horses from challenging him in the Old Line State, where they run for black-eyed susans. Included is a superfilly who was second against her own gender in a race for roses of a different kind. And only a handful of colts who ran for roses run again two weeks later. The start colt isn’t even favored, the superfilly is, and she wins decisively, beating the boys and smothering the dream of a crown being won. But the filly doesn’t show up in the Empire State to run for carnations against the boys OR the girls.<\/P>
It’s Silly Season, once the dream of a Triple Crown has ended. In Silly Season, all sorts of inconsistencies come out of the woodwork. There are colts who ran in the Bluegrass Derby but who skipped the Middle Jewel, colts that skipped the Derby but joined the party in Maryland, colts that join it altogether in New York, and only two colts who survived the grueling trek throughout the Derby trail: Skitzoid and Ras El Hanout, the Derby winner. There’s no need to be reminded that running three races in five weeks totaling a sixteenth less than four miles is a brutal task of any horse, hence the attrition rate being high, and the last mile and a half of it usually includes horses better designed for the distance than what came before it. But the attrition rate seems higher than normal. In addition to Skitzoid and Ras El Hanout, only Letmegocrazyonu returns from the top 15-ranked three-year-olds. A mile and a half, already with limited appeal from horses bred for shorter, seems to be just what the doctor ordered these folks to avoid. A scheduling conflict with the Labatts Ontario Oaks, a nine-furlong Grade I, probably didn’t help, with a pair of Derby horses opting for a test of Canadian beer over the Test Of Champions this time.<\/P>
It makes it hard, from a competitive standpoint, but from a storyteller standpoint, it’s an absurdist’s dream. This year’s Grade I, $1,000,000 New Yorker Stakes features a lot of different stories converging onto one stage. And while the Belmont lost its star attraction at the very last minute, the New Yorker has kept its composure and its star, the Derby winner Ras El Hanout. He has no crown on the line, but his Cinderella story, and that of his sire Tanino Gimlet,continues to unfold. Bred for grass but using a somewhat obscure sire (at least, to us Westerners), he veered from his fate as an OK grass horse to solid European dirt runner to North American Sim superstar, winning four in a row in the American division routing on dirt, culminating in a stellar Bluegrass Derby win five weeks ago. But the bloom dimmed a bit when filly Final Exit pulled a surprise as the favorite in the Middle Jewel, winning with something left while Ras El Hanout finished third, his first dirt defeat. He was disrespected by the oddsmakers in Maryland, not only not being favored as the Derby winner, not only being second choice to the filly that had won the Bluegrass Oaks, but he only narrowly was the second choice in the Middle Jewel ahead of Silverton. This time, in New York, no such drama exists.<\/P>
Ras El Hanout is the solid 9-2 favorite on the morning line, well ahead of his main rivals. Skitzoid, the only other horse in the field to have completed all three legs of the Triple Crown and who was second in the Derby, is second choice at 6-1 while Steelshanks, who joined the trail in Maryland and set the pace in the Middle Jewel before tiring to fourth, is third choice at 7-1. But the focus belongs to Ras El Hanout, looking to solidify his status as the top colt on dirt in his generation. A closer from the rear of the field, usually, he has to deal with some unforeseen circumstances here, and that is the unfamiliarity of the field to the conditions. The New Yorker, remaining the Sim’s Test of Champions, is a mile and a half, a distance no one has raced at to this point, and most here may never do it again. It takes a special kind of horse who can show his best, true colors at a mile and a half, and do so at a championship level. Presenting now, the field for this year’s New Yorker Stakes: Whose Vagabond Shoes Are Longing To Stray…Most?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":123,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10259","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10259","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/123"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10259"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10259\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10259"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10259"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10259"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
Ojai Trio<\/STRONG> [Teofilo x Bernadini, trained by ojai<\/EM><\/STRONG> for OJAI VALLEY STABLES] is one of eight horses joining the field without making a start in this year’s Sim Triple Crown, six of whom are making their graded debut here. He’s hit the board each time out in nine starts, which is excellent form, and he’s manage to show something new and improved as the distances have increased. Three starts back, he opened up an eight-length lead in a second-level allowance, and cruised home geared down by four, and that roll he embarked on continued two races back, where he stalked the early lead and drew off much the best by almost four. Last time, he tried a mile and a quarter for the first time, and even though his win streak ended at the hands of fellow New Yorker starter Dootsin Cum Laude, his speed figure reached an all-time high of 104 while finishing an even third. He has tactical early speed he can use here, but he’s not really the quickest on the draw in this field, as there are at least three others with good turn of foot early on, and that includes the pace-setter of the Middle Jewel in Steelshanks. His pedigree has been good at the middle distances thus far, but his last outing, even with a career-best speed figure, does suggest there is a ceiling to his potential in terms of distance. It has to be said now, and it’s certain to be repeated later, that in a field unaccustomed to marathon distances, experience at the distance doesn’t quite matter as much the first time out. There’s no pecking order; it will be established in this spot. His career-high figure can be interpreted in two primary ways: either it hints at an affinity for these longer routes, or he was just following some strong horses at the distance last time. He was never far removed from the early lead, in fact he maintained a close distance behind Dootsin Cum Laude all the way around the track, but there was very little impetus for him to make a move late behind that horse. That does not bode well for him against an even better overall field, going longer here, where if a horse gets loose he becomes that much more elusive to gain ground on unless he tires. He’s a fair value here at 10-1, but the distance limitations hinted at in his last just seem a bit much to overcome.
Steelshanks<\/STRONG> [Forestry-Buckner’s Legacy, by Seeking The Gold, trained by checkmate3 <\/EM><\/STRONG>for CHECKMATE RACING CORPORATION] has finished no worse than fourth in eight starts, and he was the pace-setter in the Middle Jewel before he got picked off by Final Exit, Dynakaze and Ras El Hanout, respectively. It has to be examined, his propensity to go for the lead, because when you look at it, something stands out. He’s been on the lead at points of call in his races five times. He’s won twice when doing that. But those wins came in his maiden victory, and a listed stakes on Christmas Eve in Dubai. When he tried it in a major race, such as the Corkscrew and the Middle Jewel, he’s wilted late. He has only won once from a stalking position, an allowance race last fall. When one glimpses at something like that, one is impressed by his tactical speed, but less than impressed by his finishing ability, especially when it counts. It’s important to note this, because of the horses with speed that are likely to head to the front of the New Yorker, this one is the most capable to getting that lead to himself, but has yet to truly learn the art of finishing it off on the front end on the big stage. The Middle Jewel speed figure of 104 is absolutely respectable, and he’s very well-bred, and give him the benefit of the doubt of knowing what it is to possess speed and trying to make it count and carry. And maybe with all the uncertainty of the others in handling the mile and a half, he can hang around at or near the front longer than one might believe. The suspicion here is that he’ll get the lead early and take them as far as he can as fast as he can, and try to make it count. But it’s a question mark about his survivability doing that over twelve demanding furlongs, particularly against closers who are almost salivating at the prospect of a strong pace to set them up. Hitting the board is quite possible, but…
Gogossos<\/STRONG> [Monsun x Sadler’s Wells, trained by asoiaf2<\/STRONG><\/EM> for Given Stables: Fire and Blood] shares a quality with the Derby winner, in that both have strong turf pedigrees, but both have made their bones at long distances on dirt. A stablemate of Middle Jewel runner-up Dynakaze, he was not a factor when he was thirteenth in the Derby, earning a 94 speed figure for his effort. He did try a grass career, but slowly found his way on the dirt, and was a hard-charging second after the fast pace of the Corkscrew two back. He’s one of the ones that might drool a little over the prospect of a quick pace once more, but when the filly Street Etiquette tried to help him out, it just never set up for him. Those that skipped the Middle Jewel after the Derby do have the advantage of a little extra rest, and this colt’s pedigree is suited for longer distances, and the field does seem a bit paler this year for the final leg of the Triple Crown. Can all of that add up to a surprise? It’s difficult to measure: among his three-year-olds this season, Monsun has a couple of graded winners on the dirt, including another solid colt, Grade II Captain Hook winner Whentheshipcomesin. Over recent history, for every dirt marathoner type Monsun comes up with, like Grade I winner Mescalito or recent Grade III winner Devil’s Last Wish, you find just a hair more graded-caliber horses that seem limited by distance, that can win at nine furlongs or less. It’s inconclusive to determine whether a horse like Gogossos has a set limit for his liking on dirt based on that, but when he eliminates a twelve-length deficit in a nine-furlong Grade I like the Corkscrew just to come up less than a length short, it’s a bit encouraging to his hopes going longer. But he needs something of a duel up front to set him up better than the Derby did. And he could use no Genghis Khani-types getting loose on the lead as in that Corkscrew run. It’s a crapshoot for him to get the scenario he needs to make that late kick work, but with a lot of unknown variables new to Grade I action or the Classic trail in general, that’s a possibility. Watch him late, particularly if there’s any pressure up front in the early stages.
See The Wand<\/STRONG> [Sea The Stars-Wave A Wand, by A.P. Indy, trained by gr8white<\/STRONG><\/EM> for Gr8white Stables] is another one: grass-sired, but dirt-approved. With two less-than-impressive wins, in spite of being graded-placed on the grass, a switch to dirt and a move (back) to America proved beneficial for this colt, as he’s won four of five dirt starts, including a wet-track romp in the Grade III Nawbo Derby last time. A half-brother to Grade I winner Giant Wand, class runs through his veins, and the Nawbo Derby win was a strong one to represent him in this field. But was it natural affinity, or was it the slop? It can be both, but it should be noted he was turning back to a mile and a sixteenth in the Nawbo, and was a fairly game second prior to than in the nine-furlong, Grade II Chicago Derby under better conditions. The 106 he earned in Texas last out was a good step forward, but now it’s a matter of extending what he likes to do out to the mile and a half of the New Yorker. He’s more of a mid-pack stalker than anything on either side of it, and that certainly doesn’t serve him badly in here, where he can sit just off the lead and hope there’s a pace collapse to inherit in the final furlongs. But one’s eyes keeps going back to how much he improved by virtue of a wet track and a return to a mile and a sixteenth last out, and with that there’s some healthy skepticism about whether he might be up to the task stretching out almost a half-mile here. His best race leading up to his rise through the graded ranks came at a mile in Italy in March, and with a pair of wins each at seven and a half and eight and a half furlongs on his resum\u00e9 on dirt, it suggests that he’s stepping significantly out of his comfort zone here. Winning four of his last five is a positive, as is the return to a fast track in this slot, so a step forward is possible. But one shouldn’t expect a lot of miracles here with a steep rise in class and distance approaching here.
Skitzoid<\/STRONG> [Awesome Again x A.P. Indy, trained by muninn<\/EM><\/STRONG> for Tees (Whisper) Stables] is the designated deep closer in here, and where a lot of things have to go right for a deep closing threat to be most effective, he’s had things his way a lot of the time. He rallied from fourteen lengths back to finish second in the Derby, but ran out of steam quickly in the Middle Jewel and never fired, finishing tenth. When he’s on, however, he’s on fire, coming from about thirteen lengths out to win the mile and three-sixteenths Grade I Vermont Is For Lovers back in February. The pace dynamic was better for him in that start than in either leg of the Triple Crown, where’s been running out of ground, whenever he could get off of it. Here, on paper, it looks to be a better scenario, with some speedy types possibly battling it out up front while he waits to make a late move. But is he ready? The Middle Jewel was a surprisingly flat race for him, coming out of a gutsy effort late in the Derby, which may hint that he’s been through the ringer an awful amount on this year’s trail. That said, the added ground and his preferred running style do add points in his favor, and there are not a lot of veterans in this field that may prove formidable in a spot like this as in previous years. His best speed figure is the 108 from the Derby, which is not a surprise considering he was second behind a quality effort from Ras El Hanout, so he’s capable of the big race. Perhaps it was the quality of that Derby effort that resulted in the subsequent bounce in Maryland; be that as it may, he’s second choice behind the Derby winner with good reason, and the distance and scenarios set him up a bit better than the Derby winner. There’s hesitance over making him the “now” horse, because he still was<\/EM> second in the Derby, but in theory he does look to have good upside to him going forward.
Lucky Prayer<\/STRONG> [Unbridled’s Song x Mr. Prospector, trained by kevoman2<\/EM><\/STRONG> for Kevoman Stables], if he’s going to make it in this race, is going to be battling his pedigree, which is geared more for speed than stamina. On the other hand, it’s his speed that’s made him look pretty good this spring. He’s a versatile type who has improved with the incremental increase in distance so far, and he’s been sent to the lead, by happenstance or instinct, each of his last two starts. If he goes to the lead, he is capable of being dangerous, as he galloped clear by as many as ten lengths two starts back in a stakes race in D.C. against a small field, and last out he pressed the early pace going a mile and a quarter for the first time, pulling away late with a career-best speed figure of 102. He’s 3-for-3 at a mile and three-sixteenths or longer, and makes his graded debut here, one of five starters working that angle. There’s enough in his pedigree and his past performances that suggest he’s perfectly able of handling these longer events, but a mile and a half? Well, he’s been able to hold some speed in reserve when he was younger and come from off the pace, notably in his maiden win, so he’ll have his choice of tactics as he appears comfortable with them. But it’s the class rise and theoretical limitations of his pedigree that hold the key for him; if he can hang in with these and can outrun what stats hint his pedigree is best used for, he could be a player, even while needing more of a step forward stretching out among high-class foes. There’s still room for improvement, but he has quite a bit to answer for here.
Call It Luck<\/STRONG> [Lookin At Lucky x Seeking The Gold, trained by stormboot<\/EM><\/STRONG> for Dixiedotco Racing], or call it something else, but he’s live. And he’s got a very hot trainer, who happens to train the Middle Jewel filly Final Exit. What makes him live is that, of this field of fourteen, this colt is one of only two to have run the longest distance\u00a0to date among the entries: a mile and three-eighths. (The other is Times New Roman, whom we shall meet shortly.) He did well to take an allowance by more than four lengths Memorial Day weekend (against a short field, though). That he’s wheeling back here quickly is of some concern, but if you’re bred for distance, you’re bred to be reasonably fit in a pinch. The issue is one of class, here, too. He was a listed stakes winner last July, but he struggled with each early attempt to get him going in graded company at 2, which led his connections to back off on the graded activity. The approach may have paid off handsomely; this colt has been first or second in six races this year, and he’s improved his speed figure with each 2012 start as well, which is difficult to do on a sustained level for so long. He’s bred well, he’s clearly going in the right direction, and if he hasn’t swept through the year, he’s at least been in the game with every stride so far in 2012, and that’s the kind of form you need to contend against the best. Which brings us to the “but”, as in, “but what about that awful record in graded action?”. That’s tough to look past, being 0-for-3 in graded starts, though it’s easier to excuse, since they happened at shorter distances at 2. Still, this is his first graded stakes in eight months, and as his form has improved as the distances get longer, he seems to be rounding into form at the right time. He’s a valid long shot here, at 16-1, and his running style of closing from the back of the pack fits well with this bunch. He’s another for whom the pace will dictate his chances with about five furlongs to go, and if it’s sharp enough, he’s someone who doesn’t deserve to be overlooked…not while Dixie has such the hot hand on multiple levels this season.
Gandalian Invader<\/STRONG> [Smart Strike-K’s Mahler, by Encosta De Lago, trained by verdugote<\/STRONG><\/EM> for Verdugote Stables] has taken four of his last five outings, each time either being on the lead or sticking extremely close to it. He’s another one bred to love the distance, and clearly enjoys these longer runs up front. Between the Derby and the Middle Jewel, he captured a ten and a half furlong stakes gate to wire in Nebraska, and has rested up since for this. Good idea, as he’s going to be another one who feels the need to lead. He’s got a fair chance to hang tough for a long time up front here, as even if he’s relegated to tracking in second, he’s been able to contend well in his outings. The rub for him, though, is that of his five starts this year, only one was not against a four-horse field. How battle-ready is he in this Grade I debut? If the quality of opposition answers, it’s “Not very”. No graded winners appear as also-rans in his past performances, with just one graded-placed horse and a stakes winner or two showing up. Now he doesn’t need those to pull an upset here, particularly when this is the first time many of these are running so far. But even if his speed figures do fit reasonably here, who he’s beaten does mean something equal to how he’s beating them. He’s still pulling off some strong speed figures, but they have dipped slightly stretching beyond a mile and three-sixteenths. This is a tougher field, and he’ll need to milk his abilities for all they’re worth for another three-sixteenths to stay with these.
Times New Roman<\/STRONG> [Dynaformer-Palatino, by Theatrical, trained by gowans2011<\/EM><\/STRONG> for Gowans Stables] has a lot to overcome here, and that’s in spite of a solid highlight on his resum\u00e9. He’s bred exceptionally for handling twelve furlongs, but has only two wins from six outings, fewest of both categories in this field. What keeps him noteworthy is his last effort, which is the only stakes win in this field at a mile and three-eighths, which is the furthest distance any horse assembled here has run. He closed from mid-pack against a short field over a good track, and he won with absolute authority by just over five lengths. Now, that race is going to have an asterisk on it, because of the conditions, the short field, and the fact that, in a race where only two horses finished without being distanced, a 268-1 shot finished third. And the speed figure, while it was a career high, was still just an 88. But one can’t help but give credit where it’s due to a horse who won trying to replicate the conditions of the New Yorker as best he could. Whether by intent or happenstance, he got himself into a position where he could give a go to trying a mile and a half having won a stakes race close to that distance. That seems to be the good news. Alas, he steps into a graded race for the first time, and his best speed figure is still 23 points under where the best speed figure overall has been. Returning to a fast track should allow for improvement, and if the distance is to his liking, he could improve his standing beyond where the morning line projects he’ll be, at 49-1. And if the speed gets rolling up front, he’ll be something of a factor with a late run. But you know the story about the Greek king sentenced to eternity rolling a rock up a hill, only to have it roll back down again? Times New Roman, at present, is Sisyphus. And the rock is trying to run a mile and a half in a Grade I with a lot of development left to make in his career. He’s not the kind of horse to be doing this for eternity, but it will require more of a Herculean effort to bring him to the front end of a difficult Grade I task.
Stevieboy<\/STRONG> [Stephen Got Even-Robe Bell, by Broad Brush, trained by cityminer<\/EM><\/STRONG> for Kingman Racing Syndicate] is a marvel of what you can do with an H-grade mare possessing something in the bloodlines to build upon. The mare’s sire is Broad Brush, and when you mix him into a pedigree, you do get a decent amount of stamina to work with. Stephen Got Even can be had for a song these days, but he’s that kind of workmanlike stallion that can get along with just about any mare. The progeny is a prodigy, with a win in last summer’s Grade II Faber College Juvenile. He hasn’t scaled similar heights since then, but not for lack of trying; he was a hard-closing second in last fall’s Grade II Ransom, second this year in the Grade II Land’s End, and fifteenth in the Derby last out. He’s been training for a return here, and with dam-sire Broad Brush and a DDS sired by Roberto in his bloodlines, distance should be potentially in his wheelhouse. Tactically, though, he’s hard to pin down. He’s shown himself able to close effectively at 2, but he hung close to the lead in the Derby before fading late, showing some tactical versatility. The Land’s End picked him up a fair speed figure of 100, but he’s not been able to improve upon that since, and time’s been running out on him. When he hits the summer’s Derby circuit, he should bloom quite nicely, but in this spot, in spite of the pedigree’s potential, he hasn’t shown enough consistently this year, and he hasn’t won since last July’s graded win at 6 furlongs. It does not bode that well for him here.
Letmegocrazyonu<\/STRONG> [Eskendereya-Sim Fanatic, by Seeking The Gold, trained by blankpoin2<\/EM><\/STRONG> for Right At Home Stables]—first up, I’m more of a “Barracuda” fan. As for the horse, he stayed up close to the the pace in the Derby and got sucked into the Street Etiquette tempo, fading to twelfth. He won the Grade I California Derby from off the pace, however, which seems to suit him well, depending on just how fast they end up going on the lead. He’s not far removed from the lead in his other graded stakes tries, which include a pair of runner-up finishes in Grade I stakes. He’s proven himself to be a fine colt in the top echelon of the division, and can hang tough with the best of circumstances. But it’s hard to look at his Bluegrass Derby race as being the “best of circumstances”, as it was his first finish out of the money in his nine starts (he was fourth in his debut). Too close to a hot pace, he folded late, and there’s a decent chance it could happen again here with a strong early pace. Distance may be a factor; his speed figure in winning the nine-furlong Cal Derby was his high of 106, but it retreated to 98 in the Derby, and that was a rerun of his speed figure in the Vermont Is For Lovers, at nine and a half furlongs. His pedigree is quite solid in the middle distances, and there’s no reason why he can’t clean up on the mid-summer derby circuit as well, but even with rest, solid bloodlines and reasonable tactics, the distance on paper is going to be a challenge here.
Flip Flop Tip Top<\/STRONG> [Henny Hughes-Colorful Degree, by Dansili, trained by ramo<\/STRONG><\/EM> for The Light Bulb Conspiracy] features Pye in a supporting role. The horse has been raced constantly since debuting last March, his seventeen starts being the most in this field, and he’s been everywhere, man: twelve graded races in fifteen months at eleven different tracks is some serious tourism of the Sim countryside. So he is quite experienced. Would’ve been nice if the horse won one of them, though. Being 0-for-12 in graded races overlooks how competitive he has been, finishing second twice, third once, and earning paychecks in eight of those twelve races. And he has battled some of the best in the division. Yet his performances, in spite of just how decent they were in terms of consistency, highlight a nagging problem, and that is a lack of focus. This colt has never earned a speed figure over 100, and has done fair while routing, been pretty good at sprinting, but his only wins were his maiden, a subsequent stakes win thirteen months ago, and a six and a half furlong allowance in late April. He’s the type of horse one loves to see in the Sim, always being present, willing to put in a good effort, but one of the efforts needs to pay off on some level for full satisfaction. That’s not to say he won’t get the distance. He’s a stalking type who will sit off the leaders in waiting, and the pedigree includes a wildcard in Dansili, who’s been known to toss off a few, as sire and dam-sire, who could win covering a distance of ground on the dirt. Plus, you bet against Pye and he wins, you’ll never hear the end of it. The colt may be the most battle-tested horse that is racing in graded stakes within his generation of colts, with all those graded races building up experience, but he does need to improve a not-insignificant amount to catch up to some of the major players in here; more of a role player tactically than anything else.
Dootsin Cum Laude<\/STRONG> [Student Council-Her Friends, by Seattle Slew, trained by hoots<\/EM><\/STRONG> for Gcutty Stables] is an upset threat who is facing his fifth dirt race after eleven consecutive starts on the grass. Ordinarily, not a big deal on a surface switch, except that when this one felt dirt, he really felt it: four races, four stakes starts, two wins, plus a second and a third. And overall, he’s a measure of consistency: he’s never been worse than third, and he’s only been third once in his fifteen races. When you’re a half to the multi-millionaire Legends of Rock and Grade II winner Hayden’s Splash, consistency runs in the family. Each of his dirt races were a mile and three-sixteenths and longer, he was third in his dirt debut in the slop, then won a ten-furlong stakes with a speed figure of 107. His last two races he has retreated from that high number, running first and then second at ten and a half furlongs, with speed figures back into the high 90s. To be fair, he made the surface switch just as he was starting to peak on the grass, having run up a win streak at middle distances of five straight. So he was peaking at the right time, and accelerated from there. Still, the ultra-consistency is impressive enough to make him a contender here. And yet, there are some question marks. Who has he beat? Can he handle both stretching out and stepping up? And where exactly does his tactical speed leave him? He’s gone to the front in short-field races, stalked when the fields were a little bigger, and came from behind against an eight-horse field in his win at ten furlongs. Here, where is he going to end up? And was that 107 speed figure a fluke? He has a lot of questions to answer for here in this race, and his class is a nagging concern. Still, it’s not one of the strongest New Yorker fields in recent memory, despite having a pretty deep crop of three-year-olds, so maybe he might not need to be much to stay in the mix. Keep him in your exotics.
Ras El Hanout<\/STRONG> [Tanino Gimlet-Covent Garden, by Sadler’s Wells, trained by super21<\/EM><\/STRONG> for SUPER- Often Imitated, Never Duplicated!] has a dubious post position in the New Yorker, to say the least. The farthest post a horse has won from in the New Yorker is post #13, though #14 has finished second and third. But when you are the Bluegrass Derby winner, and you hit a bump en route to the Triple Crown and hope to regain your stride, you want to take any advantages you can get. And the super<\/EM><\/STRONG> bunch craves this, as they have not won a New Yorker as a collective since Virtuoso in 2006. The question that does capture the imagination, though, is what went wrong in the Middle Jewel? He had everything his own way tactically, he wasn’t all that far removed from the lead, and he, as they say, lacked the needed response in the stretch, third, beaten just over four lengths. Did the Derby take more out of him than originally thought, or was the pace he was tracking something less than what he desired? Regardless, he’s back for a third try, one of just two horses taking the Derby trail to its conclusion. There’s another pace to track, one that again should set him up well for a late run, his speed figure was still quite excellent for the Middle Jewel, there’s no filly in here to complicate matters, just an outside post to overcome. He’s 9-2 with very good reason, as he, like the lamented I’ll Have Another in his race, towers over this field on paper based on speed figures and consistency in the Triple Crown. But he’s also got to be tired after a bruising campaign that’s seen him win five in a row on the surface switch to dirt before the Middle Jewel defeat, including four graded stakes wins. And yet his pedigree hints that the best may be yet to come in this race. The distance shouldn’t factor into it, it’s just the post and how he handles another pace that needs to be hot enough to benefit his late run without sucking him into a vacuum. This race is his to lose.
And yet, my selection is a long shot. Ras El Hanout is the “head of the shop”, leader of the three-year-old crop, even forsaking the sensational runs of both Final Exit and Street Etiquette this spring. But in spite of the pedigree and his estimable reputation, I think a long and protracted stretch duel will hand this race to Call Me Luck. His trainer is on a tear, the horse is rounding into form, and while he does need to build solidly on his recent form in this ambitious placement, I believe this field leaves enough room for this horse to gain that experience at a distance I think he enjoys most.
1. Call It Luck
2. Ras El Hanout
3. Skitzoid
4. Dootsin Cum Laude
5. Steelshanks<\/STRONG>
Good luck to all racing in the New Yorker this week, and thanks to all who embarked on the Triple Crown journey this year for giving us something to talk about in the years to come.<\/P><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"