In another racing universe, we might start handicapping a major race by looking at similar races at that track and distance and look for patterns.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>For example at another track someplace offering a card featuring the most important races of the year, we might note that, according to a popular past performance publisher, stakes races on the turf at a mile are most often won by horses coming from post positions three through seven that are able to come from just off the pace or from well off the pace provided they make their move fairly early.\u00a0 <\/SPAN><\/P> Generalizations from that publication are easy for them to make \u2013 they have the data on all the races from all the tracks.<\/P> For us, it\u2019s a bit more difficult.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>For one thing, we postulate that post position makes no difference, and in fact that the venue makes no difference.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>We might be wrong in these assumptions, but that\u2019s where we are starting.<\/P> So, the thing to do is to look at mile turf races at all tracks.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>But which races?\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I think it is safe to say we should only look at stakes races, but not, I think, even all stakes races.<\/P> Now, I am a bad trainer.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Momma said your winning percentage should always be greater than your shoe size, and my feet are apparently much too big.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>So I can only imagine the thinking that goes into entering horses like we have here today into their races, but here\u2019s what I bet happens.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Say it\u2019s a typical weekend and you have a top ten horse and two graded stakes at the right surface and distance to choose from.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If one of the stakes already attracted two or three of the other top ten horses, wouldn\u2019t you be drawn toward the other stakes?\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Or suppose your horse wasn\u2019t quite at top form, and the race you wanted was already filled with top quality horses, wouldn\u2019t you look for softer competition or perhaps skip the weekend altogether?\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I think I would.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Look through the past performances and see how often, or seldom, these top horses have faced each other.<\/P> The Breeder\u2019s Bowl is different.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If you have a small chance of winning, you\u2019d still enter \u2013 it\u2019s still a chance.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The bragging rights.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The pride.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I bet many would be willing to live with my winning percentage if they could say they won this race.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>No avoiding other horses because they make be as strong as yours or because yours may be a little off.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>No, these races are different, so we won\u2019t look at all stakes races; we will only look at the past six Breeders Bowl Miles.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Only Breeders\u2019 Bowl Miles, because their uniqueness and only the past six because of our short history.<\/P> Before we do, I have to shudder a bit.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I have some training in statistics, and to make, with any confidence, any conclusion based on a sample of size six is laughable.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>But we do that all the time in handicapping.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>After the first two races on a card are won wire to wire, don\u2019t we look for early speed the rest of the card?\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If a trainer has won four of her last six, don\u2019t we give special consideration to her next entry?\u00a0 <\/SPAN>I know I do.<\/P> So, for what it is worth, here is the recent history of the Breeders Bowl Mile.<\/P> In 1999, the winner was a horse named Foggy A.P. <\/B>(A.P.Indy x Riverman).\u00a0\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Foggy was six years old, and entered the race off a second in a Grade 3 race.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He had four wins and four seconds in his eight prior starts, and was the second choice in the betting at 5-1.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>His running style prior to the race had been as an Early\/Presser; however he came from well back that day.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>His trainer, Crisis<\/I>, is still in the game, but trains only one horse.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Foggy\u2019s speed figure in the race prior to the Breeder Bowl was 113, and his lifetime best was 127.<\/P> The favorite in 1999 was named Enough Knock. <\/B>He wasn\u2019t done.<\/P> In 2000, seven year old Huge Tale<\/B> (Nureyev x Robellina) wired the field.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He had finished second in a Grade 3 in his previous race with a speed figure of 101.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>His lifetime best had been 124.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He had tried the Breeders Bowl Turf the previous year and led from gate to top of the stretch, when he faded to sixth.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>His running style would have been classified Early\/Presser.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Huge Tale went off at 7-1 odds, the third choice in the betting.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Trainer TFV<\/I> is still active and still winning at a 23% clip.<\/P> In 2001, Enough Knock <\/B>(Sadler\u2019s Wells x Mill Reef) came back to wire the field.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He had been a disappointing favorite in the Mile two years previous and a disappointing favorite in the Turf in 2000.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>This time, as fourth choice at 9-1, he got it done.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In his previous race he had a 117 speed figure while winning a nongraded stakes.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>His lifetime best had been 120.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>His running style would have been either Early or Early\/Presser.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Trainer Win<\/I> is still doing well with a five horse stable.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In 2001, by the way, the Breeders Bowl was held in In 2002, the freakish Storm Dog<\/B> (Storm Cat x Fappiano) was the surprise winner at 13-1, eighth choice in the betting.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Storm Dog was a three year old filly taking on older males.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She had won eight of her previous nine races, and entered this race off a 108 speed figure win of a Grade 1 race for three year old fillies.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her Previous best had been 117.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She won in her typical come from behind style.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She was classified as a Sustained-style filly.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Trainer AmandaS<\/I> still trains two of Storm Dog\u2019s babies, and still wins at a 20% rate.<\/P> In 2003, Storm Dog wasn\u2019t fooling anyone and repeated as the favorite this time.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her previous race was a career tying high speed figure 120 win in a Grade 1 race.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She came into this race winning six of her previous seven races. By 2004, Storm Dog was retired, and the winner was La Groom\u2019s Wood<\/B> (Woodman x Blushing Groom).\u00a0 <\/SPAN>La Groom\u2019s Wood, fourth choice in the betting at 7-1, was five years old and entered the race off a win in a Grade 2 race.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In fact he came in with a four race win streak and a career best 120 speed figure.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He had an Early\/Pressing style, performing best when he could come from just off the lead.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Trainer Victorious <\/I>retired La Groom\u2019s Wood early to breed.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Victorious wins at a 26% rate.<\/P> In statistics, a datum that doesn\u2019t fit the pattern is called an outlier.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Storm Dog is one hell of an outlier.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>She was a different age, a different gender, had a different running style, and went off at longer odds than the other winners.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>If we want typical we should look anywhere but at Storm Dog.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Ignore her races and it seems clear what we should be looking for:\u00a0 <\/SPAN>a horse five to seven years old male, coming off a first or second in a stakes race, an Early\/Presser running style, a career best speed figure of at least 120.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>As far as odds, we will prefer to be in the top five selections.<\/P> Let\u2019s look at our entries:<\/P> Trainer CapnCoke<\/I> (13%) is not fazed by the 13-1 odds.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Dreaming\u2019s two graded wins came at similar odds.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Dreaming comes from well off the pace and will be running late here.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>His last race was a rallying second in the Grade 3 Brown Fields Handicap, where he finished ahead of Leven Seventy Won.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>His figure was a 105, and his lifetime best is 115.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He also beat Xtremely a Fan, Jacques, and Tern of the Wheel in the Grade 1 Turf Invaders Stakes.<\/P> On the down side, he seems to prefer slightly longer, and his last half dozen<\/P> races have a pattern of good race\/bad race.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>And last race was good.<\/P> Dizzie comes in from a fourth in the Grade 2 Walnut Breeders Bowl Mile, where he could not get the lead and faded a bit in the stretch.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Dizzie\u2019s style is to run early.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>In all nine of his wins, he has been on the lead or less than a length behind the leader all the way.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Jockey N Bonus (opting for this one over family trained Manifest Destiny) will be charged with getting that lead.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Dizzie\u2019s figure in the last was 102, and his lifetime best was 112.<\/P> You sometimes hear that good two year olds are never good after that.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Dizzie was three for three as a two year old, seven for 13 as a three year old, and five for nine so far this year.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Dizzie has won eight stakes, three of them graded since turning three.<\/P> His last win came in the Grade 1 2000 Hanging around the leaders and not fading has helped Niner Connection to become a great money earner, averaging almost $100,000 per race, but he is rewarding the exotics players more than the win bettors. This year he has six third places in ten starts. Jolie\u2019s Song was most successful as a three year old, when she won eight of twelve races, all against females and mostly sprints.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Seven of those eight wins were stakes.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>Her best running style is to make a late bid, as in her last win when she came from last to first to capture the Grade 2 Buddy Boy Mile in Jolie\u2019s Song\u2019s last race was a disappointing, but even, tenth to Xtremely a Fan in the Grade 2 Utah Breeders Bowl Mile. \u00a0<\/SPAN>Her Speed figure was 100, and her lifetime best is 118.<\/P> This year he has won the Grade 2 Hallelujah Turf Cup and the Grade 1 Explosive Bet Stakes.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>He is definitely a sustained pace style horse, always over seven lengths behind by the second call. Tern of the Wheel has finished behind Xtremely a Fan a couple times: the Grade 1 Turf Invaders and the Grade 1 Cash Reserve Stakes.<\/P> As a two year old, Jacques popped a 96 speed figure, giving rookie jockey M Sheridan his first stakes win.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>\u201cThat\u2019s when I knew he had class,\u201d said owner Yochem. <\/P> Jacques had a couple wins early and a couple wins late in his three year old season, but overall it didn\u2019t live up to the promise he showed as a juvenile.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>\u201cSo I gave him some time off to mature.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>And I don\u2019t regret it,\u201d said Yochem.<\/P> The highlight of the four year old season was a win in Jacques comes into this race off a third in the Grade 1 Ark de Triumph, where he earned a 92 speed figure.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>The try at 12 furlongs was an experiment, according to Yochem, and not a successful one.\u00a0 <\/SPAN>So it\u2019s back to eight furlongs today, where \u201cwhen he has his day, not many can hold him in the last couple of furlongs.\u201d<\/P> He surely can win, but in