{"id":10078,"date":"2012-03-24T12:05:09","date_gmt":"2012-03-24T12:05:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blacktypebugler.com\/?p=10078"},"modified":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"-0001-11-30T00:00:00","slug":"oldbtb_1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/?p=10078","title":{"rendered":"All Aboard The Derby Train! Next Stop \u2013 The Lane\u2019s End"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

14 horses and trainers have visions of roses, but the starkreality is that today, the dream will be over for the vast majority who do notpast the numerous tests presented in the 9 furlong Lane\u2019s End, a Grade II$500,000 contest for 3yo colts.\u00a0There will be time for one more contest for each of these fine foalsbefore the first Saturday of May, but only a select few will be in position tomake a Derby Lock race, let alone the select 20 of the Derby field itself. <\/p>\n

As is my tradition in speculative endeavors such as this, Itransform myself into a wellspring of doubt.\u00a0 My powers lie not in guessing the future, but intodissecting the past to find what the reasons are for what we see today.\u00a0 Kind of like a Shell Answer Man butturned inside out.\u00a0 Am I jealousthat I don\u2019t have an entrant worthy of this race?\u00a0 Of course!\u00a0 Trynot to let that devalue my skepticism.\u00a0I suspect that all 14 entrants are viable Derby contenders\u2026but I will predict that none of them will win today.\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

And I will be right on 13 counts.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

The hopefuls:\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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Race ID:4995.8314
Race # 14<\/strong><\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/b><\/span><\/span>
Click here for past performances<\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/span>
The Land’s End<\/b><\/span>
Grade II\u00a0<\/span>
A mile and one eighth\u00a0<\/span>
Fast Dirt\u00a0<\/span>
$500,000\u00a0<\/span>
All horses, 3 years old\u00a0<\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

PP\u00a0<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Horse ID\u00a0<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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Horse\u00a0<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Owner\u00a0<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Jockey\u00a0<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

Odds\u00a0<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u00a0<\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

1<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

106222<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

BOARD PASSION(KY)<\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

bmoney<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

S Bogue<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

15\/1<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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2<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

72677<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

STEVIEBOY(KY)<\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

cityminer<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

J Sorrell<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11\/1<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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3<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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85569<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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BOOBIRD(KY)<\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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goody<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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R Salo<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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18\/1<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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4<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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119607<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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RESONATES(JPN)<\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

seedlysub<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

M Liddleski<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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9\/1<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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5<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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175635<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

FLIP FLOP TIP TOP(KY)<\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

ramo<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

R Zamora<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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9\/2<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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6<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

105781<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

ARMAGEDON(JPN)<\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

armagedon<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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A Ramirez<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

19\/1<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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7<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

148858<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

ITS A GOOD THING(KY)<\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

adschus<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

J Gomez<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

18\/1<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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8<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

49804<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

SILVER RALPH(JPN)<\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

ajhsstable<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

R Moffett<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

6\/1<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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9<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

26149<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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GHOST TO GHOST(KY)<\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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rrlogans<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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T West<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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8\/1<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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10<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

99168<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

RAS EL HANOUT(JPN)<\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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super21<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

J Caves<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8\/1<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

11<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

47746<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

SACK A CAT(KY)<\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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masterm<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

E Martinsen<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

25\/1<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

12<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

92053<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

FANTASTIC RULER(JPN)<\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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fastracing<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

P McGaunn<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

15\/1<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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13<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

66198<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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MAJOR ALEX(JPN)<\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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jetchamp<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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W Desantis<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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6\/1<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

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14<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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102444<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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STEELSHANKS(KY)<\/span><\/o:p><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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checkmate3<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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D Balderas<\/span><\/a><\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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9\/1<\/o:p><\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

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<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

BOARD PASSION already has a nice win at 9.5 furlongs and wasstakes placed in his last outing\u2026 \u201cbmoney\u201d is pressing his star into action ontwo weeks rest for reasons which should be apparent to you astute readers.\u00a0 It could happen \u2013 but the bounce factormight be counterproductive.<\/p>\n

STEVIEBOY is following a steady regimen of Listed Prep,Graded Stake, rinse and repeat.\u00a0The results have been promising \u2013 and both speed figures and pedigreesuggests the derby distance will not be a hindrance.\u00a0 \u201ccityminer\u201d breaks the cipher here with a second consecutiveGraded race, but time is running out \u2013 his current #28 ranking is not going tohold without some significant notches on his stakes points belt.\u00a0 To be continued?<\/p>\n

BOOBIRD has a lot going for him, the least of which istrainer \u201cgoody\u201d, a Derby-inflected pedigree, tactical speed, well-spaced races,and improving speed figures.\u00a0 Hedoes NOT have a Graded placing as of yet.\u00a0It will likely take a 1-2 finish today to earn a berth in a Lock race tokeep hope alive.<\/p>\n

RESONATES is exactly what this horses last race did withinthe 3yo dirt community\u2026 I mean really, who earns a 104 SP in his route debut,without even winning the race?\u00a0Everything about the pride of \u201cseedlysub\u201d is unorthodox\u2026 despite threeexcellent Graded races on the resume, this Roses In May colt has only onevictory\u2026 and not in a Maiden race.\u00a0I wouldn\u2019t be shocked if he pops another big number and maintains hisN2L status right into the big dance.<\/p>\n

FLIP FLOP TIP TOP is like the Bizarro STEVIEBOY\u2026 ranked #26but starting to level off\u2026\u00a0 couldbe the others catching up in maturity, could be the distance, or mysteriousforces unknown to man and beast (not saying which one I am).\u00a0 FFTT clearly has been a success for\u201cramo\u201d so far, with a 99 SP in an 8f G3 race, but the SIM would be turnedupside-down and set on fire if this son of HENNY HUGHES x DANSILI x MR. GREELYproved best at 10f\u2026 unless he is the chosen freak of all simulated freaks.\u00a0 Henny advocate \u201cdesperado\u201d must beproud and jealous all at the same time.<\/p>\n

ARMAGEDON is owned, bred, and trained by\u2026\u201darmagedon\u201d.\u00a0 Don\u2019t be fooled by the 19-1 morningline \u2013 this horse clearly likes the 9f distance as displayed in his previousallowance win, the first of 4 dirt tries.\u00a0DEEP IMPACT x KRIS S. = Derby pedigree.\u00a0 Overflowing with promise, but it literally is the end of theworld for this one\u2019s chances if he doesn\u2019t get it done today.<\/p>\n

ITS A GOOD THING was not always clearly that \u2013 he recentlywon a race which revealed his CPU value to be less than 225\u2026 but he\u2019s gettinggood at the right time and is well rested for \u201cadschus\u201d.\u00a0 It\u2019s a big jump from listed to gradedstakes, and it doesn\u2019t help that he was saddled (pun intended) with a jockeywho is 0 for 44 on the season.\u00a0Perhaps we\u2019ll see him in Baltimore for the Middle Jewel\u2026that\u2019s not a badthing\u2026<\/p>\n

SILVER RALPH came to life when \u201cajhsstable\u201d stretched himout to a mile, and it has been mostly happy times since then.\u00a0 Perhaps sensing the urgency of thematter, Ralphieboy has already run 4 times in a span of 9 weeks, with todaymaking start #5 in only 12 weeks time.\u00a0Sitting at #73, he\u2019s got to hope for a win today and a sensible breatherbefore the big dance\u2026 and sweat out the entry box.\u00a0 To the moon, Alice\u2026<\/p>\n

GHOST TO GHOST has not won a race in quite some time, but itwas a G3 at a mile which helps him achieve a comfortable #39 spot in therankings.\u00a0 Sensibly trained by\u201crrlogans\u201d, his early foot has been rateable and he stands a solid chance onthe turnback and class drop from the always-tough Vermont is for LoversG1.\u00a0 As always, GHOST TO GHOST willtry to go coast-to-coast.\u00a0 If hepulls it off, a Derby day saddle towel he may boast (groan).<\/p>\n

RAS EL HANOUT is on such a roll that even Bruce Waynedoesn\u2019t have the tools to obstruct his path to the Derby.\u00a0 The \u201csuper\u201d superstar sits at #12 inthe 3yo classic ranks by virtue of an undefeated record on dirt, with twoeerily identical Graded Stakes wins\u2026both at 8.5 furlongs, both with a 102 SP,both by a widening 1 \u00be lengths.\u00a0The consistency is admirable but frankly, downright creepy.\u00a0 Running machines like this may notrespond well to even the slightest change; in this case, an additional 100meters of real estate.\u00a0 Logic saysit shouldn\u2019t be a concern, but this is not Philosophy 101, this is the SIM.\u00a0 Root for or against a super 3yo at your peril.<\/p>\n

SACK A CAT scores before running by virtue of\u00a0 the coolest name. \u201cMasterm\u201d used theturf to dirt angle to coax a 9f allowance victory out of the TALE OF A CATtrainee\u2026but the double jump to Graded level is daunting.\u00a0 Stranger things have happened in thegame, and there is always the spectre of Dr. Dipperlip\u2019s Handicapping Serviceaffecting a race outcome, but there are only so many hours in the day forillicit injections and knee alignments\u2026<\/p>\n

FANTASTIC RULER is a lot like GHOST TO GHOST in that he\u2019sbeen knocking heads with SIM elite for some time and has a G3 8f win on hisrecord to keep him relevant.\u00a0 The\u201cfastracing\u201d speedball has rebounded well from a rough Breeder\u2019s Cup showingbut bit off more than was chewable in the VIFL G1 last out\u2026 a commontheme.\u00a0 Today\u2019s bunch is not asaccomplished but we won\u2019t be saying that tomorrow.\u00a0 Now or never for #42 on the list.\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

MAJOR ALEX has been a major pain in the wallet for much ofthe 2011 SIM crop throughout his career, and is the only horse in the fieldwith 3 Graded victories to boast.\u00a0 \u201cJetchamp\u201dhas done a champion job at getting the DAIWA MAJOR sprint star to succeedaround two turns, but his 98 SP 4th<\/sup> place effort last out in the Scamwas his first out of the money effort, ever.\u00a0 This is a superior horse that may be reaching the limits ofhis comfort zone\u2026 but that may even be good enough to dominate at this level.\u00a0 10 furlongs?\u00a0\u00a0 Maybe we\u2019ll find out in a few months.\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

STEELSHANKS has not cut any corners while quickly coming toprominence as \u201ccheckmate\u201d used the traditional maiden-allowance-listed-gradedprogression to slide up to #46 in the rankings.\u00a0 This is a logical next step after a solid 2nd<\/sup> witha 99 SP next out, but I am sure the #14 post and abundance of speed in the racedid not please the connections.\u00a0Like the runner to his left (we ARE running counter-clockwise from thegate), we\u2019ll find out how far this son of FORESTRY really wants to go.\u00a0<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

My predictions:\u00a0\u00a02 Derby entrants from this field of 14.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

1 1\/8 mile prep for the Bluegrass Derby is the last stop for many<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":67,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10078","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10078","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/67"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10078"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10078\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10078"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10078"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10078"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}