race 4988.6214
FR, Night At The Exbury-G3, 4yo+ M 10F Turf<\/p>\n
This week we visit Juddmonte Farms most [people know the stallions but it is worth a look for several reasons. Firstly they are the world\u2019s leading breeder of grade 1 winners this Century. Secondly they do not always conform to the obvious in obtaining these results. Lastly the importance of the female family is so great at Juddmonte and this has a real effect on the sim in many ways firstly through use of broodmares and how they are rated and also in local bred racing on what makes a good horse.<\/p>\n
They have two stallions in the US now. This is to do with several factors the first one is that they now have around 65-70% of their mare sin Europe if you go back 15 years it was the other way around. The brutal truth is sires in Europe are superior to those in the US. The other major factor is Empire Maker did not make the grade as a stallion at least in what Juddmonte wanted from him. He sired too many bleeders and unsound horses not what you want from a future broodmare sire. They already have a few issues here so need robust mares long term to maintain the quality of the band.<\/p>\n
First Defence he was an ok race horse. He won a poor grade 1 easily at 4. On paper he does not have many selling points based on race record. He is though from an excellent female family but one that is plagued by unsoundness and breathing issues. His sire will not help to infuse confidence in those respects. His first real life runners are this year. Of his few that Juddmonte have in training there are signs they have concerns over these issues. It is significant his stud fee has already dropped to $7,500. It is hard to see him being much of a success and as such should be rated around the 1% stakes winners to runner\u2019s ratio. As with many Juddmonte sire will make a better broodmare sire. <\/p>\n
Mizzen Mast has been at stud a while now. He has 9 graded winners 8 of those have been in the US and one in Japan. His best European runner was a 5f sprinter. He is a horse that appears to be at stud to breed mares with to make sure they have something different going forward we will not get his true worth until his mares start to produce runners in large numbers. It would be no surprise to see him do better in this sphere by some way. He is in the most part a horse that sires runners that stay a mile plus. He would be around a 2.5% stakes producing sire with the odd one or two up to graded class.<\/p>\n
Champs Elysees he improved with age or did he. He was second rate in France but went up a gear when switched to the US and pumped full of drugs. Rumors were he bleed in France. That being said there has to be questions marks over him as a sire. His race record at two and three does not inspire confidence. He is likely to produce slow maturing horses as well. He is a brother to Dansili but for every Dansili Diesis there is a Keen!. I would tend to rate him at around the same level of First Defence until he proves otherwise.<\/p>\n
Dansili is one of the best sires in the world. He has worked up the hard way earning respect from his runners on course. In 2011 only Galileo and Montjeu sired more graded stakes winners than he did. He had 14 he is and should be one of the best sires in the game. He is also versatile in getting fast 2yo\u2019s to smart 16 furlong horses it all depends on the mare! I would rate him around the 10% stakes winners to runner\u2019s ratio, mind I do not think any sire in the game should really be exceeding these levels off a full crop in truth.<\/p>\n
Oasis Dream he was the perfect racehorse in many terms well bred by a fashionable sire was a champion grade 1 winning 2yo and an open age champion grade 1 winning 3yo. He went to stud as a potential star sire the best of his year worldwide though not in the sim and has delivered he is the best out of that crop of sires. The fact he is more than just a sprinter miler type of sire is even better and he should be in the top 20 sires in the game. I would rate him around the 9% stakes winners to runner ratio. <\/p>\n
Observatory he is an interesting one. He is at stud for one reason to produce broodmares. His own sire Distant View was nothing special but has already sired 5 grade 1 winners as a broodmare sire his statistics are better than A P Indy and he should be rated as such in the sim. Hopefully that will happen once the new game is up and running. Juddmonte are hoping the same from this horse and it is worth noting 2 of his best three runners were fillies each worth her weight in gold. Expect this horse to be better in ten years time. As a sire I would rate him as the sort of 2.55 stakes ratio horse he is capable but does not have many runners so tends to get underrated.<\/p>\n
Rail Link he did not run at two but was an open age grade 1 winner at three. S expect his first runners were slow to come to hand but he has a graded stakes winner already and it would be a massive shock if that number did not increase in the current year. He could well be another Hurricane Run kind of sire in that his statistics are very good but people do not really notice until later on. I would rate him as a 3.5-4% stakes sire but most will want a trip and improve with time. <\/p>\n
Three Valleys was an outstanding 2yo but was fragile. He is at stud because of his pedigree in truth and is another project sire for broodmares. He is from the female family of Dansili and is by Diesis so brings in that Sharpen Up blood Danzig line sires love. You can really see him doing great business as a brood mare sire in years to come. His runners are starting to improve and it would be no surprise to see him with a few good runners before the end of this year. He also has a decent sim rating as well for a cheap sire. I would rate him at the same level as Rail Link.<\/p>\n
Zamindar has been really busy in recent years at stud, since Zarkarva and has covered some very good mares. It would be no surprise to see him do very well in the next couple of years. He is also likely to make a good broodmare sire as well. The negatives with him are in the head as with all Gone West Horses. It is getting the balance right of ability and mental attributes to deliver on the course. Reports were that he was a far superior horse on the gallops to his brother Zafonic but was just a total fruit loop, this fits into the conversations I have had with a person who owned a Zamindar colt. I would rate him around 5% stakes winners to runners going forward and his current sim rating looks reasonable and he appears good value for money.<\/p>\n
We are off to France this week for the first graded flat race of the year in Europe. Just to think this week the world\u2019s premier race meeting is being held 10 miles from me highest betting turnover of any days racing in the world and highest rated horses running and I ended up at one of our P-T-P (Denevo can translate) Siddington this week. Though I still believe given some investment that it would make an excellent racecourse proper. <\/p>\n
REACH PERFECTION (KY) PLEASANTLY PERFECT x STORM CAT x MR. PROSPECTOR<\/p>\n
The sire has been a failure; only really know as the sire of Rapid Reflux. He has three graded winners all on turf which may explain a lot of his problems and that two are in race s over 9f means his stock has little value in the US. He may well do better moved to Europe but there is not enough about him to get breeders excited. This is a strange horse he has lots of ability but not many wins. He is graded placed twice but has not won a stakes race, in fact he still has allowance options open to him. The trip should not be a problem but I think class will be and at best he has placed prospects.<\/p>\n
RIVER BARROW (KY) KINGMAMBO x SADLER’S WELLS x ROBERTO<\/p>\n
This horse is bred on a proven real life and sim cross. The cross already has a graded winner in 2012 in real life. This horse has been generally progressive which has to be good news. His speed figures have the right profile and also show general improvement. The negative would have to be the lack of any sort of stakes win but he has been placed several times. His best runs so far have been over further. He has the profile and ability to make the frame in this race all that being said.<\/p>\n
NEW AGE EVIL (KY) MEDAGLIA D’ORO x NUREYEV x FORTY NINER<\/p>\n
Of this sires 15 graded stakes winners 14 have been in the US of those only 5 winners have been on turf. None of those turf winners was anywhere near top class. He really has proven very little as a turf sire as his racing record would suggest. This horse has a very good win to run ratio and has earned a shot at stakes races. This is a graded race which is another jump up again so we have to take on trust he can handle the class hike. The trip should be ok but there have to be question marks if he can handle this sort of class his only 3yo+ open start raises serious alarm bells.<\/p>\n
MINESWEEPING CAT (KY) MINESHAFT x SOUTHERN HALO x STORM CAT<\/p>\n
Mineshaft ahs sired 10 graded stakes winners in his time at stud none on turf. Enough said he is a skid standard sire on this surface. His sim upgrade seems a rather strange one given his overall record. We are in France and his record is way below that of French based sire King\u2019s Best but I am sure he is rated far above that horse. This horse was top class in 2009 in the sim at 8-9 furlongs. He has not won on the turf in over 2 years. There is absolutely no reason to believe that will change here. His sim sp is 16-1if the sim had betting exchanges it would be 999-1 on a win bet.<\/p>\n
ROWDY CHOICE (AUS) REDOUTE’S CHOICE (AUS) x A.P. INDY x CARSON CITY <\/p>\n
He is by an outstanding sire. It is also worth pointing out the fact his dds has a very good record as a dam sire. Though it is confusing there are two Carson City Us bred horse that have sired graded stakes winners as broodmare sire in the last 10 years. This fellow was top class on dirt as a 3yo. He was switched to turf last time and won well in by his standards a soft race. Is he able to transfer the ability to turf at this level we will find out here. The other factor is will he still be as good as a 4yo in the sim. If the answer to those two questions is yes he has an outstanding chance. Though there has to be more than a small chance either or of the questions returns a negative answer.<\/p>\n
ZTAG COTC (NZ) ZABEEL (NZ) x DYNAFORMER x MONTJEU (IRE)<\/p>\n
Zabeel has been one of the most prolific sires of graded winners in the last 10 years worldwide only 4 active sires have more. Ok many have been in New Zealand where racing is a run below top class but never the less he is a far better sire than his sim rating. This horse is hard to weigh up he is showing improved form having graduated from claims. He has never been placed in an open stakes let alone a graded stakes race. There is enough though to suggest he could sneak a place but as for winning that appears highly unlikely.<\/p>\n
GLOSTER METEOR (KY) CURLIN x STORM CAT x SADLER’S WELLS<\/p>\n
I want this horse to win because of the name. He is named after the first allied jet fighter designed and made where I live. I used to deliver papers to Whittle Avenue as a child. Originals can be seen at the Jet Museum http:\/\/jetagemuseum.org\/default.aspx. The original Gloster Gladiator plane I see a picture of every day as the pub near my house is named after it. There is though one slight problem this horse ahs run at 10f twice and both times been murder suggesting he does not stay. He is though a very good horse at 8f but that is not the trip today and it is hard to see him making the frame. <\/p>\n
MY PERFECT FAMILY (KY) CHEROKEE RUN x ANABAA x CAPOTE<\/p>\n
This horse\u2019s sire has had 14 graded stakes winners over the last 10 year 12 on dirt. The two on turf were in very poor grade 3 races that would not have made listed class in Europe under the pattern system. This horse had his poor run after 6 wins so hopefully will bounce back to from again. The one worry would be the change in calendar year which affects a lot of horses. If not then he has the class to make the frame in a graded race and enjoys the trip. Not a know hoper in here at all.<\/p>\n
INVIGORATING (KY) SMART STRIKE (CAN) x BROAD BRUSH x SADLER’S WELLS<\/p>\n
Broad Brush has had 15 graded winners as a dam sire in the last 10 years only one has been outside the USA. They are split between surfaces as well. This horse has not had many runs but is going the right way and has been posting good speed figures. The negatives are a lack of a stakes win at present so he still as to prove he can handle the class. At present the question marks over the class make him a horse that can be passed over for selection in this field.<\/p>\n
HINGE (KY) JOHAR x WITH APPROVAL x LURE<\/p>\n
Johar has not been a big hit at stud. Though he is a source of stamina based at stud in the USA and a look at races any day of the week shows that is not a good idea. It is no surprise then he has had 80% of his graded success from his shuttle offspring. This horse was purchased a while back and has run ok for his new owners without winning. His best days seem well behind him though now and he holds little chance in this race.<\/p>\n
UNBRIDLED WASSIE (KY) EMPIRE MAKER x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY x ACADEMY AWARD<\/p>\n
This horse\u2019s sire was mentioned above just to say in real life you would not want money on this horse. A good bet to burst. This is a very good horse and runs to a good standard in most starts. He had a poor run last time and still posted a triple digit speed figure. If that was his bounce race then he has to be considered as a candidate in this field based on his prior form. It would be no surprise to see him make the frame at all.<\/p>\n
KING BEE (KY) HENRYTHENAVIGATOR x GIANT’S CAUSEWAY x SEATTLE SLEW<\/p>\n
The sire has his first runners this year 12 are at Aiden\u2019s so we will soon know there worth. At least he is being given a chance. It is worth noting of Giant\u2019s Causeway that his five graded winners as a dam sire 3 have been on dirt and two by A P Indy. This is again a good horse with proven graded form and likes the trip. He has also run well this year and this race looks softer as well. He has a lot going for him and it would be no shock at all to see him come home in front.<\/p>\n
JUBBLY (IRE) SHAMARDAL x RED BULLET x SEATTLE SLEW<\/p>\n
This horse\u2019s sire is one of the hottest in the world now and given the number of graded winners in the last two years it would be no surprise in fact the opposite if he was not in the top 10 active sires in the game going forward. This is a good horse from before that time. He has been in outstanding form. The only negative issue would be the 5 months off will he strip fit? If he does he has to be considered as one of the likely winners.<\/p>\n
As for my selections:-<\/p>\n
1 King Bee
2 Unbridled Wassie
3, River Barrow<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Night At The Exbury-G3<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":222,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10058","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-previews"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10058","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/222"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10058"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10058\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10058"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10058"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/btb.ehorseracing.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10058"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}